Estrange cut to 12-1 for Arc after impressive Group 1 breakthrough in Pretty Polly

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Ever since Estrange did an uncanny impression of Arazi up the Goodwood straight in a maiden almost two years ago, there was a sense of inevitability about her becoming a Group 1 winner. Now she is and nobody can begrudge it.

These were not even her optimum conditions. The trip was supposed to be too short and the ground too lively, but she overcame those issues with a thoroughly emphatic success that has connections once again dreaming of Paris in the autumn. She was cut to 12-1 (from 33) by Ladbrokes for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Europe's ultimate prize that she missed last year at the eleventh hour with a temperature.

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As for 11-10 favourite Thundering On, it was yet another blow to the Oaks form. She bolted up at Epsom, but here she followed in the footsteps of Epsom runner-up Legacy Link and the fifth home Cameo by being badly beaten next time.

Perhaps this came too soon for her, and similarly so for Legacy Link in the Ribblesdale, but it was still hard not to be disappointed with a tame finishing effort, which saw her fade into fourth.

She deserves the benefit of the doubt for now, and it will be interesting to see whether she bids for the big Oaks double back at the Curragh next month.

But back to Estrange and David O'Meara, the Yorkshire-based Cork native who was celebrating his first top-level triumph since another grey, Lord Glitters, won the Jebel Hatta at Meydan in 2021. The winner has only finished out of the first two once and all the indications are that she is better at five than she was at three or four. The world is her oyster now.

"She's such a wonderful mare," said a typically cool O'Meara. "She was maybe caught a little bit wide throughout, but it looked like it was pretty smooth sailing for Danny [Tudhope].

"There's a big weight-for-age allowance for the three-year-olds, so I didn't know if that would tell in the last half-furlong up the hill."

He added: "She travelled nicely to the two-furlong pole and dropping back in trip has definitely not been a negative, it could have been the making of her.

"Maybe we have been running her over the wrong trip, but I'm delighted with today and delighted for Cheveley Park. They have been sending me horses now for over a decade and it's brilliant for them."

Cheveley Park's Richard Thompson and David O'Meara after Estrange landed the Pretty Polly Stakes

Cheveley Park's Richard Thompson and David O'Meara after Estrange's Pretty Polly Stakes successCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

The Arc question was the obvious one and when asked whether it was part of his plans, O'Meara said: "We'd love to go for it and she has an entry. It was important that she got the Group 1 win under her belt and she did so in good style today. We'll enjoy this and figure out where we will go next."

Next could well be a stepping stone to the Arc, wherever it is, and winning jockey Tudhope agreed.

"Hopefully the Arc will be a target for her again. It would be a dream to go for it, so why not?" he said with a smile.

"You can't fault her efforts and she came up against a couple of good fillies in Group 1s last season. She's a dream ride for a jockey.

"I thought dropping back in trip would suit her and she has a lot of speed. She felt good and picked up well when I asked her and put the race to bed."

Team Estrange (from left): David O'Meara, Danny Tudhope, groom Charlotte Mulhall and Richard ThompsonCredit: Patrick McCann

It was One Look who closed to grab second at the line, with Red Letter back in third.

Dylan Browne McMonagle wasn't too downbeat about Thundering On afterwards, and said: "She ran a good race and I would be happy enough to go back to 12 furlongs with her."

This was Estrange's big day, though, and she's now a Group 1 winner. It was inevitable after that glorious Goodwood debut.

Analysis: 'Minnie Hauk's Arc odds appeal much more than Estrange's'

By Harry Wilson, betting expert

There is no doubt Estrange was impressive in winning the Pretty Polly Stakes, but does she warrant being a 12-1 shot for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe based on that performance?

For a horse campaigned solely at a mile and a half last year, Estrange showed plenty of pace here on ground that has often been deemed too quick for her, and the winning time was good (0.31sec below Racing Post standard).

However, the form of this race is hard to weigh up. It looked quite obvious that impressive Oaks winner Thundering On ran below form, and beating One Look (peak RPR of 116) and Red Letter (peak RPR of 111) can hardly be considered Arc-winning form.

It will be interesting to see how our handicapper rates the race, but I’d be inclined to think that Estrange ran to somewhere near her best (RPR of 117), or possibly even achieved a slight career-best.

Estrange: Pretty Polly winnerCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Even so, the average winning RPR of an Arc winner is 125.7, and the last four fillies older than three to win Longchamp’s showpiece ran to an average winning RPR of 123.3. That indicates Estrange will need to improve to feature at Longchamp.

It is also worth remembering that she was no match for Minnie Hauk in the Yorkshire Oaks last August, and that rival has since managed an RPR of 122 when runner-up over an inadequate trip behind Ombudsman in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. Her odds of 10-1 appeal more at this stage than Estrange's 12-1.

Many factors could explain Thundering On's below-par run. The quick turnaround since Epsom combined with the shorter trip on the quickest ground she’s encountered would be my guess.

She proved her suitability over a mile and a half on rain-softened ground when winning the Oaks three weeks ago, and she is worth another chance to show us just how good she is. I certainly wouldn't rule her out if she lined up in the Arc in October.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (October 4, Longchamp)
bet365: 7-2 Daryz, 10 Constitution River, Minnie Hauk, 14 Diamond Necklace, 16 Estrange, 20 Bay City Roller, Kalpana, Maltese Cross, Thundering On, 25 bar

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