Is Jango Baie the one to beat in the Bowl or will the Gold Cup have left its mark? Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Harry Wilson have their say

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It's racing's annual equivalent of the question 'how long is a piece of string?'. Will Cheltenham efforts have left their mark come Aintree? 

No horse encapsulates that conundrum quite like Gold Cup runner-up Jango Baie, who is the hot favourite for the Racing Welfare Bowl Chase.

Less than four weeks have passed since a thunderous Gold Cup in which he was eight lengths behind Gaelic Warrior and two lengths clear of everything else, but is it enough time? Not even his trainer Nicky Henderson knows for sure – and he has won a Bowl with a Gold Cup runner-up as recently as 2018 with Might Bite.

Speaking to the Racing Post earlier this week, Henderson said it was very hard to tell exactly how a horse has come out of Cheltenham. "There's always an imponderable five or ten per cent", he said.

But his decision to skip a shot at a potential third win in the JCB Melling Chase with Jonbon, who also ran at Cheltenham, is arguably the strongest possible indicator that Henderson very much believes Jango Baie is ready for the challenge.

"Might Bite was second in a Gold Cup and then won this, so we'd better do the same again, hadn't we?" he said playfully, before adding the two were nothing alike. 

"They couldn't be more different. One was wicked, whereas this horse has a great temperament. He enjoys it and was very sharp when we schooled him the other day."

Paul Nicholls has been as good a trainer of a three-mile Grade 1 horse as it is possible to be over the last 20 years and the Betfair ambassador emphasised just how difficult it is to come from the Gold Cup to the Bowl and thrive.

On the challenge facing Jango Baie, he said: "It's hard to come to Aintree and reproduce your form after having a hard race in the Gold Cup. It never worked for us."

His great rival Henderson is hopeful the extra week – Aintree falls four weeks after Cheltenham instead of the usual three this year – could make all the difference. 

He said: "It was a four-week year when Might Bite was successful, as it is now, and that very much helps. Hugely so. I'm saying for Jonbon we'd rather buy another two weeks than come here, so that shows you how much of a help more time can be.

"I hope he's the one to beat and he seems very well; everyone's happy. He had a hard race at Cheltenham. He's showing the right signs, but you can't know for sure until they run."

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Analysis: 'Seven have tried and the three who were successful all had four weeks between races'

Many horses who have run well in the Gold Cup have subsequently tried to follow up in the Bowl at Aintree, but their success rate is not high.

When considering those who finished second, third or fourth in the Gold Cup, just nine of the 35 runners (26 per cent strike-rate) to then line up in the Bowl in the period since Racing Post records began in 1988 have managed to win.

Something that offers hope to fans of this season’s Gold Cup second Jango Baie is that the record improves markedly when considering runners-up, with six victories from 11 such runners (55 per cent strike-rate).

Nicky Henderson is one of the trainers to have achieved this; Might Bite won after chasing home Native River in the 2018 Gold Cup. He also won this race in 2023 with Shishkin, who had finished second to Envoi Allen in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

One factor needing consideration is the break between festivals and, since the turn of the century, an interesting trend has emerged.

Seven Gold Cup runners-up have tried their luck at Aintree in that timeframe. The three who were successful, Exotic Dancer (2007), Might Bite (2018) and Gerri Colombe (2024), all had four weeks between races, while the four who lost arrived after just three weeks off.

Having longer to recover from any Cheltenham exertions was always likely to be a positive, and this should aid Jango Baie, who had only three weeks between his hard-fought Arkle success and his third in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase last year.

Every horse is different, and there is no way to definitively know whether Jango Baie had a hard race at Cheltenham, although a finishing speed percentage of 106.04 per cent suggests it wasn’t as tough as it could have been.

Jango Baie is comfortably better than these on all known form, and Henderson wouldn’t be here unless he thought he was good to race. I’m still firmly in his camp, as I have been the entire season.
Analysis by Harry Wilson

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What they say

Paul Townend, rider of Impaire Et Passe
I was never happy on him at any stage in the Ryanair, and I suppose by pulling him up, at least you could say he didn’t have as hard a race as he could have. He loves Aintree too, which is always a big factor at this meeting. I wouldn’t be in a rush to write him off.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Pic D'Orhy
He's fresh and well, and he ran arguably a career-best when he cracked a million pounds in prize-money, finishing second to Jonbon in an epic race at Ascot. He likes a flat track, and there are a few ifs and buts about some of the others in this race. It's one of those races that's quite open and I think Pic D'Orhy is a big price. He's not getting any younger but he's tough and genuine, and hopefully he'll run his race.

Protektorat: has been kept freshCredit: GROSSICK RACING

Dan Skelton, trainer of Protektorat
He's getting older, but he doesn't appear to be weakening in his ability. I think it's interesting that we're coming here fresh while a few of the others have been to Cheltenham. He's done well at the track in the past, and won a Grade 1 here. He's been second and third in the Melling Chase for the past two years, and I think he'll go really well.

Jimmy Mangan, trainer of Spillane's Tower
He’ll run if the ground is juicy. He’s in good form. I think the track and trip will suit him. They’re watering like mad, so we’ll have a look at it.

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