Unlucky Royal Ascot runner could benefit if likely favourite Sparks Fly misses out due to lack of rain

Sparks Fly is the Trueshan of the older fillies’ mile division. She is as ground-dependent as they come and the Pipalong Stakes changes complexion if her absence is confirmed.

Expect the class-dropping Soprano to assume favouritism in that scenario. Soprano was a top-class three-year-old who placed in two autumn Group 1s in 2024, and her defeat of Crimson Advocate in the Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes at Kempton in March proved she had trained on.

However, Crimson Advocate emphatically reversed that form in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes as Soprano struggled when there were few excuses. A resurgence is required and she must defy a 3lb penalty from a tough draw in stall ten. 

Royal Dress is relatively solid at this level. She won a Group 3 at the Curragh last summer and shaped second-best in the Middleton Stakes on her comeback when third to rampant winner See The Fire.

You sense she may have bumped into another filly destined for big things when failing to lay a glove on Spiritual in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom last month.

Charlotte’s Web has the talent to be a factor if able to translate her high-class all-weather form to the turf. A peak Racing Post Rating of 76 in three starts on the grass (most recent one came last August) falls well short of her all-weather zenith of 108, although that may only be circumstantial. 

Perhaps a first-time tongue-tie can make the difference for Julia Augusta, whose trainer David O’Meara is 21 per cent with such runners sporting the aid. The six-year-old dominated the fillies on her side in the Kensington Palace Stakes and O’Meara has clearly reignited her enthusiasm.
Analysis by Robbie Wilders 

Going update

The ground was on Monday described as good following 14mm of rain on Sunday. Sunny spells and temperatures of 22C are forecast for raceday.

What they say

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Charlotte's Web
She ran a solid race in the Hoppings at Newcastle last time and she's come out of it super well. She hasn't had that many runs on turf and whether the mile on turf is a bit short for her, we're intrigued to find out. But it's a stiff track and it looks like the right spot for her.

David O'Meara, trainer of Julia Augusta
I've been happy with her two runs this year. At Epsom she was one of the only horses to make up ground that day when running on from the back to finish third, and then at Ascot she was drawn on the wrong side and still ran really well. She's in good form and we're trying to achieve some black type.

James Tate, trainer of Royal Dress
She's dropping down in grade. Epsom was a bit frustrating as the leader got the run of the race and she got stuck behind a couple when we wanted to make ground. We've dispensed with the hood as she's a bit more relaxed and mature, and that should help her be more effective over the mile. The stiff mile on the turning track should suit her well as she's well balanced. She's got a nice draw [stall two] and the rain they've had won't do any harm because she likes good ground.

Dave Loughnane, trainer of Sparks Fly
I doubt she'll run as they were promised lots of rain, but it's only gone to good ground and it looks like it'll dry back. If she had her ground, I think she'd win, but I'd be shocked if she gets the conditions to run.
Reporting by Andrew Dietz

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