The novices at Cheltenham are the best around - but which contenders already beat the ten-year standard?

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Everybody seems to think that this season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is among the best in recent years and, with Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba in the Arkle, there won’t be many questioning the strength of that race. But what if we could give a definitive standard for each?

The good news is that we can, and by comparing the pre-race Racing Post Ratings of each first-three finisher in the last ten years we don’t just get the standard for winners. We can also calculate the rating every contender needs to have reached to be placed in an average running.

All Racing Post Ratings are adjusted to 12st over jumps and, in order to calculate the pre-race standard, we must strip away the adjustment. Last season’s Supreme winner Kopek Des Bordes, for example, had an adjusted pre-race RPR of 162, but that is only 155 when unadjusted because he carried 11st 7lb (12st - 11st 7lb = 7lb to remove from that 162).