'She's our best chance of a winner this week' - who fancies their chances in a wide-open King George V Stakes?

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There is an angle that is almost unique to Ascot's 1m4f track, and which shows up most strongly in the King George V Stakes year after year. Wide draws have a clear advantage on the stats.

The main reason for this is the ability to swing wide off the final bend, avoiding all the inevitable scrimmaging up the inside. Two factors make that set of circumstances more likely to come around: a big field and a strong pace. 

That is why the King George V, a race that almost always makes its maximum field size of 20 and which comprises three-year-olds who in most cases are new to the longer trip, is the race where it prevails most often. The strong pace and concentration of runners creates the perfect circumstances to thunder down the outside.

The other main strand of the King George V is the wealth of well-bred horses. Many of the most powerful connections and breeding operations are represented in this 1m4f handicap, including Godolphin, Shadwell, Al Shaqab and the Niarchos family this year. 

Arc Ole Ole (centre): appeals as a potential improver in the King George V StakesCredit: John Grossick Racing

There are plenty of others, but those are the ones in the all-important wide stalls. Arc Ole Ole, who is drawn in stall 20, does not represent a major operation but he was bred by Kirsten Rausing and has the sort of classy, middle-distance pedigree you would expect.

He also represents a major formline. The race he won at York is counted as a new race for certain purposes, because it has been downgraded this year, but in its former guise it often pointed this race's way. Last year, Merchant did the double. Naturally it is a lesser race this year, but a 0-80 at York is stronger than a 0-80 just about anywhere else.

I have a firm idea of the sort of horse to look for in the King George V. In spite of surface appearances, Arc Ole Ole fits most of the categories. The snag is he is far from the only one to hit the right beats in a race that often tends to produce at least one Group horse.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Guildmaster
He ran in the Dante last time which was a tough race. We feel a mile and a half in handicap company for the first time should suit him.

Richard Brown, adviser to Wathnan Racing, owners of Tierra Del Toro
It’s his first run for us but he ran a lovely race on his return in the London Gold Cup which is always a red-hot race. I’m sure the step up to a mile and a half will really suit.

Alison Begley, racing manager to Al Shaqab, part-owners of Cannes and Joulany
Joseph [O'Brien] has targeted this race with Cannes since his second start when he was second to the useful Asakir. He won very well at the trip last time. Ralph [Beckett] has always held Joulany in high regard. He works well at home but Ralph felt gelding him would help him, just as it did for his brother Al Aasy. He was only beaten half a length by Maltese Cross at Newbury so has the form to run a big race.

Jane Chapple-Hyam, trainer of Birgham Dub
The testing ground did not suit him in France but he has a respectable chance back on quick ground.

Roger Varian: has high hopes for Al AzdCredit: Edward Whitaker

Roger Varian, trainer of Al Azd
He has the experience for a race like this and shaped as if this track and trip would suit him when sixth in a strong London Gold Cup at Newbury last time. He goes there with a strong chance.

David Redvers, racing manager to Qatar Racing, owners of Believed
She’s our best chance of a winner this week. We think the trip and going back on turf will suit her and Johnny [Murtagh] is quietly confident of a big run.

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Into The Light
Stepping back up to a mile and a half should suit him. He ran a very solid race at Sandown, with the winner franking the form in the London Gold Cup. We feel he has enough experience in what can be one of the hardest handicaps to win at the meeting, and he goes into it in good shape.

Ed Walker, trainer of Golden Knight
Tackling a longer distance will be important to him. He had to start over a mile in the Heron Stakes at Sandown as he'd been slow to come to hand and needed a run but that has blown away the cobwebs.

Dylan Cunha, trainer of Arc Ole Ole
We’ve had this race in mind ever since he went past the post at York last time and he’s in good shape. We would have preferred to have been drawn in the middle but he’s in stall 20, although the stats say it’s not that bad. A drop of rain would help our chances.

Richard Hills, assistant racing manager to Shadwell Estates, owners of Heyzoom
He’s in great form and Owen’s [Burrows] horses are flying. The form of his win last time at Newbury is working out and he has a good draw in stall seven. We think he’ll run a big race.
Reporting by David Milnes

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