Market leaders look ripe for the taking - expert analysis for the new novice handicap chase

Having a new race to weigh up is hard enough, without its whole shape changing just before declarations. 

This novice handicap was a straightforward enough prospect when Jagwar was in the field. You could be either for or against the favourite. When he switched to the Plate, it blew this wide open and we were left with favourites by default in Asian Master and Nurburgring.

Neither excites as a market leader for a Cheltenham handicap. Nurburgring is Flat bred and, while useful on the level and over hurdles, has not jumped like the most natural chaser. Asian Master is amateur ridden and would not be so high in the betting if he were trained by anyone other than Willie Mullins.

On the flip side of that, were Answer To Kayf in the Mullins yard he might already be favourite. This stoutly bred sort ground them into submission at Naas last time and clearly handles Cheltenham. He was fourth in last year's Martin Pipe, which is one of several pieces of seriously good hurdles form in his back catalogue.

There is an expectation that the market will bend round to him, and Springwell Bay who was favourite for the Plate before he switched places with Jagwar. This race is underexplored, and now it has opened up there looks to be value down the betting.

Because it was not known what would be required to get in this race, there is a mixture in this field of quiet campaigns and more aggressive routes. The former is typified by Dee Capo, who won the maiden chase at Leopardstown over Christmas won in the past by Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File. The market did not expect much when he ran against Dancing City in a Grade 3 next time. That maiden win, where he showed a pleasing change of gear between the last two fences, is the run to judge him on.

Dee Capo (near side): best judged on Leopardstown victory in DecemberCredit: Patrick McCann

Much has been made of a lack of British runners in Grade1 novice chases, but this field paints a much healthier picture. Eight of the 20 are British-trained and some have been overlooked.

Insurrection was a winner by 16 lengths on his most recent run at Musselburgh. He had a strong gallop to run at there, and while it is fair to say that leader Asta La Pasta compromised his finishing effort, nothing else could lay a glove on him. Insurrection went by as though he was not there and was well worth an 8lb rise in the weights.

There is also Es Perfecto, who represents the novice handicap chase on Trials day, albeit a year removed. He was third to Ginny's Destiny in that race last year. That is emblematic of the races he has tended to find himself in and explains why he is a second-season novice. He has improved this season, and jumped well when winning by a wide margin at Sandown last time. With up to six places on offer, he is well worth considering each-way.

The Centenary Novices' Chase, the previous novice handicap chase at the festival over this sort of trip, was not a thrumming hive of plot jobs like the Martin Pipe tends to be. The chances are, with Jagwar belatedly rerouted elsewhere, that this first running of the Golden Miller as a handicap will be much like the Centenary. This is a race to take on the favourites with big-priced sorts, or to get creative in the Placepot in the hope of landing a big dividend.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

AJ O'Neill, joint-trainer of Springwell Bay
He's in good form. We chose this race in the end as he's already shown that he acts well around the track. It's very competitive but we're hoping he can step forward again. Jango Baie beat us earlier this year, so we'll see if that form holds up too.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Firefox, Dee Capo and What’s Up Darling
We decided to go here rather than the Arkle with Firefox as we feel the step up in trip might suit. He's been in good form and has looked particularly well since he's got over to Cheltenham earlier in the week. What's Up Darling is better suited to this trip than two miles and could run a very nice race. Dee Capo will be better suited to this trip than the longer distance last time at Naas.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Nurburgring and San Salvador
Nurburgring is unexposed over fences. We'd like a bit more experience for him but he's at the right end of the weights. San Salvador will enjoy drying ground and has plenty of experience so we're hoping for a good run.

Terence O'Brien, trainer of Answer To Kayf
It was a cracking run last season in the Martin Pipe. We’ve been slower to start this season as beginners' chases are nearly Grade 1 races in Ireland at that time of year and he had an infection earlier in the season but he's over that now. I’m hoping he’s a better chaser, he’s efficient and quick over his fences but we'd be hoping the ground gets a bit softer.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Caldwell Potter and Insurrection
Caldwell Potter's form looks a bit better yesterday as he ran against the Arkle winner back in October. He's definitely not without a chance. He's run well and jumped well at the track. I wouldn't want the ground to dry out too much but as it is would be fine. We thought Insurrection was badly handicapped at Musselburgh but he went and won by half the track. I think he's on a stiff enough mark now, but he'll give the owners a nice day out.

Caldwell Potter: formn boosted by Jango Baie's Arkle victoryCredit: Edward Whitaker

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of The Other Mozzie
He's stepping up to two and a half miles after winning over two on testing ground and we're hoping he has a good each-way chance.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Densworth and Pic Roc
Densworth is inconsistent but he's in good form and the ground is important as he wants it no slower than good to soft. Pic Roc is in good form and is peaking at the right time.

John McConnell, trainer Moon D'Orange
He won at the course last time and if he runs like that he should be competitive. Sean Bowen was keen to ride him and he's in great form so we're hopeful. Conditions are ideal so we are very hopeful of a big run.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Lord Of Thunder
We were keen to get him out again after his impressive win at Newbury last time

Alan King, trainer of Es Perfecto
He won really well at Sandown last month. I was delighted he made the cut as I feared he'd miss out.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Ryan's Rocket
He's in great form. He didn't have the best of luck at the track last time, but he ran very well considering how hard he pulled. I think the pace of this race will suit him a bit better.
Reporting by Pete Scargill

Read our day Cheltenham Festival day three previews:

1.20 Cheltenham: 'We're hoping she can reach a high level' - Maughreen and Sixandahalf clash in Mares' Novices' Hurdle 

2.40 Cheltenham: Qualifier winners have a terrible record in the Pertemps, so who is best placed to take advantage? 

3.20 Cheltenham: 'I think we're in the right race' - Il Est Francais joint-trainer Noel George dismisses course concerns for French ace in Ryanair 

4.00 Cheltenham: 'I couldn't believe the opposition to him' - Johnny Dineen expects a lively Stayers' Hurdle market with ante-post favourite unpopular 

4.40 Cheltenham: 'He's no less of a handicap snip for taking on seasoned chasers' - expert analysis and trainer quotes for the Plate 

5.20 Cheltenham: Another Kim Muir for McManus? Leading owner double-handed in attempt to follow up success of Inothewayurthinkin 

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