It's a fiercely competitive Dawn Run - but only one horse already meets the standard needed to win

Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources or find out more here

There's only one novice event at the Cheltenham Festival on Thursday and that's the Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle (1.20). 

It's a relatively recent addition to the schedule but there are ten years of data to analyse. We can therefore calculate the standard that's usually needed to win an average running. 

We must compare the pre-race Racing Post Rating of each first-three finisher in the past ten years to calculate the rating every contender needs to have reached to be placed in an average running.