'I can see him running very well' - which trainer fancies their chances in a fiercely competitive handicap?

Johnny Murtagh has saddled three runners without success at Chester’s May meeting, but could a change of tack turn his fortunes around?

All of his runners have performed with credit. Earlswood and Sonnyboylisten finished third in the Listed Dee Stakes and the Group 3 Ormonde respectively in 2021, while Mashhoor came home in fourth in the Group 2 Huxley last year.

This time Murtagh has opted to target handicap company, which could be a good move based on his record in Britain.

Murtagh has saddled just three winners from 67 runners (4.5 per cent strike-rate) in Listed or Group races in Britain, but that improves considerably to 11-38 (29 per cent strike-rate) in turf handicaps – without his runners at Royal Ascot that strike-rate goes up to 40 per cent (10-25).

His representative Take Heart has already tasted success on his travels, having landed the Chesterfield Cup at Glorious Goodwood in August last year. He’s just 3lb higher than that day and could step up on his two runs this year now getting back on better ground, although he’s still without the cheekpieces that worked well last year.

His two main market rivals look to be Rathgar and Warda Jamila, who finished second and fourth at Epsom last month. The latter, who was making her reappearance, is likely to reverse the form and looks a major player.

Grey Cuban is unbeaten in two starts over course and distance and should show the benefit of his reappearance at Kempton in March. He’s 2lb above his last winning mark and should have more to come this year.

However, he hasn’t fared well with a wide draw in 11, and there is every chance he may struggle to confirm form with Qitaal from their clash here last July.

Qitaal was beaten just a length and quarter when trying to concede 7lb to the winner that day, and he now gets a 17lb swing in the weights, despite sending Franny Norton off with a winner over the course and distance in September.

He was only beaten a length by a subsequent winner off 1lb higher on his reappearance in March and has likely had this race as a target.
Analysis by Harry Wilson

What they say

Johnny Murtagh, trainer of Take Heart
He won at Goodwood last year. There’s always plenty of pace going around Chester so that will help him settle. He’s had two runs, his fitness is good and he’s ready to go.

Hugo Palmer, trainer of Grey Cuban
He'd prefer a bit more cut in the ground but he's very well.

Tom Dascombe, trainer of Auld Toon Loon
He's won around here, but would probably want the ground a bit easier. I think he'll run well.

Harry Eustace, trainer of Mustazeed
It's 50-50 whether he runs and if it dried out he probably won't, but he's very well at home and I need to get a run into him soon. Chester has to water their bends quite a lot, so we thought we could get him out.

Daniel and Claire Kubler: represented with Andaleep

Claire Kubler, joint-trainer of Andaleep
He's going really well at home and he's drawn well in stall three. Obviously having Richard [Kingscote] onboard is always a plus at the track. He's a great stalwart for the yard and fingers crossed he can do well again. He wasn't in a good position at Newcastle, so he did well, and he's got the ability for this level of racing. We've a lot of boxes ticked and the ground and trip should suit

Michael Bell, trainer of Let's DreamHe regressed a bit last year, but our horses are in such good form and he seems to be training well. He'll be suited by the track and with a feather weight on his back, I can see him running very well.
Reporting by Liam Headd

Sign up to receive On The Nose, our essential daily newsletter, from the Racing Post. Your unmissable morning feed, direct to your email inbox every morning