'He's no less of a handicap snip for taking on seasoned chasers' - expert analysis and trainer quotes for the Plate

The one potential downside has come to pass. The changes to the chase programme at this year's Cheltenham Festival have been an overwhelming success, but it leaves two very similar races on day three in the Golden Miller and the Plate. Jagwar, who switched from the novice race to this one at the 11th hour, has left many ante-post punters with a sour taste.

I was one of them, but you need to dust yourself down and try again. That means backing Jagwar, because he is no less of a handicap snip for taking on seasoned chasers.

Although the last three winners of this race have been veterans, it is a race in which novices do well. In fact, Jagwar is treading exactly the same ground as Simply The Betts. Five years ago, he won the always red-hot novice handicap chase on Trials day that Jagwar won last time on his way to landing the Plate.

The attached graphic shows the record of that novice handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival over the last decade. If you are looking for a golden formline, you could hardly ask for better.

GRAPHIC HERE

Masaccio, who was third to Jagwar on Trials day, needs considering too. He was 11 lengths clear of the rest in a steadily run race, which marks him as a well-handicapped novice. Cheekpieces go on, which is logical enough as if he did anything wrong last time it was getting caught flat-footed.

There are other novices worth looking at, such as Jordans who has run only four times for Joseph O'Brien and competed with credit in Graded novices in the later months of 2024. Personal Ambition has done the same in Britain. Admittedly, he has not won but this sort of campaigning brings to mind what some of the big Irish yards do in races like the Martin Pipe.

The Plate is also the last race on the Placepot this year. These handicaps around two and a half miles at Cheltenham are famed for producing course specialists. The likes of Il Ridoto, Fugitif, Shakem Up'arry and Gemirande all fall into that category. Such horses are favourites of Placepot hunters, as they can be overlooked in win markets and thus by casual players in the Placepot pool. 

The latter group might be inclined to bank on Jagwar in the last leg. In this particular case, I would not be in any rush to put them off.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Richard Hobson, trainer of Fugitif
I didn’t think he’d stay last time at Newbury as he'd missed a bit of work so it wasn’t a bad run. Considering he’d never been the trip before he did well and he’s been firing on all cylinders at home and is 1lb lower than when he was second in it two years ago.

Gavin Crowell, trainer of Path D'Oroux, Individualiste, Thecompanysergeant and La Malmason
Path D'Oroux is stepping up to two and a half miles and isn't certain to stay. If he does he has a good chance. Individualiste is out of the handicap so we're claiming 7lb off him. He's an outsider with a place chance. Thecompanysergeant has his first run over fences for us and we're happy with him. His work has been good and he is jumping well at home, so hopefully he has a good each-way chance. La Malmason stepped up to three miles at Exeter where I don't think she really stayed and didn't jump particularly well. She is back to two and a half miles so we'll let her flow along. Hopefully she has a good each-way chance.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Shakem Up'Harry and Personal Ambition
Shakem Up'Harry hasn't had a very good season and it's a big ask to go back for another crack at this off a 3lb higher mark. Personal Ambition is well handicapped and his form from last year is rock solid. If he's man enough for this he has the ability to run very well.

Ginny's Destiny: Paul Nicholls hope has crept down the weightsCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Il Ridoto, Tahmuras, Ginny's Destiny
Il Ridoto won the Paddy Power Gold Cup and he likes the track. The more it dries out the better. I don't know why but he seems to run his best races before Christmas. We've put some blinkers on to sharpen him up. Ginny's Destiny has crept down the weights a little bit. He ran very well in the Turners last year. If he returned to form, he'd have a nice chance. Tahmuras didn't get the trip last time so he's back down in distance. This is quite a competitive race for his mark.

Alan King, trainer of Masaccio
He ran a terrific race when third in the novice handicap chase over this trip on Trials day in January and I hope he can step up on that form, as he was very sharp when we schooled him in cheekpieces last week. That was one reason it made sense to keep him to this shorter distance.

Oliver Greenall, joint-trainer of Jagwar
He won well there last time which was a good prep for this but that was a small field so this will be a different test with 20 runners. Hopefully if he gets into a rhythm early and handles the hustle and bustle he can run very well.
Reporting by David Milnes

Read our day Cheltenham Festival day three previews:

1.20 Cheltenham: 'We're hoping she can reach a high level' - Maughreen and Sixandahalf clash in Mares' Novices' Hurdle 

2.00 Cheltenham: Market leaders look ripe for the taking - expert analysis for the new novice handicap chase 

2.40 Cheltenham: Qualifier winners have a terrible record in the Pertemps, so who is best placed to take advantage? 

3.20 Cheltenham: 'I think we're in the right race' - Il Est Francais joint-trainer Noel George dismisses course concerns for French ace in Ryanair 

4.00 Cheltenham: 'I couldn't believe the opposition to him' - Johnny Dineen expects a lively Stayers' Hurdle market with ante-post favourite unpopular 

5.20 Cheltenham: Another Kim Muir for McManus? Leading owner double-handed in attempt to follow up success of Inothewayurthinkin 

Looking for free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.