'He can develop into a Group 1 horse' - Karl Burke holds strong hand as new jockey bids to rekindle Inisherin's fire

The sense is that if you gave the Duke of York Group 1 status it would live up to it. That it is not a Group 1 means it is often used as a run-up.

The ten-year average winning Racing Post Rating for the Duke of York is 119, just 1lb shy of the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot next month. The last eight winners all went off 7-1 or shorter at the top level on their next run. Their form figures (42071663) do not quite live up to expectations.

Readiness is key on the day and will be again this year. Six of the eight are running for the first time in 2025. The pair with the most incentive to be readied are Night Raider and Rage Of Bamby.

Night Raider is owned by race sponsors Clipper Logistics. The question with him is over the surface. He has looked a monster on the all-weather, including when last seen at Newcastle in November, but has been beaten a combined 51 lengths in his three turf runs.

Rage Of Bamby thrives at York and when fresh. We got both with her last July when she won a course-and-distance handicap off a mark of 99. She has the most to find on form, but could be one for the Placepot.

The main reason to watch the market will be to see what it makes of Inisherin. He won the Commonwealth Cup last June and, on the strength of that success, went off 11-8 for the July Cup and 5-2 for the Sprint Cup. He ran poorly in the former and lamentably in the latter. 

He has since had wind surgery, which could work but could also be the equivalent of chucking a lifebuoy into a lake. The booking of Ryan Moore is the counterweight that could lead punters to keep the faith. If that happens, it could be a day to take on Inisherin. He has plenty to prove after his finish to 2024, and this nearly Group 1 affords plenty of plausible alternatives.

Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Group 1 ambitions for Burke

Karl Burke heads the opposition both numerically and in the market to likely favourite Inisherin as he bids to win the Duke of York for the first time.

After beating only one home in last year's 2,000 Guineas, Night Raider has thrived for the drop back to sprinting trips and the Knavesmire should play to the strengths of a four-year-old who usually front-runs and is making his seasonal reappearance.

Burke, who went closest to landing the race when Spycatcher finished second in 2022, said: “I think Night Raider is a Group 1 sprinter in the making. He’s got to prove he can do it on grass, but I've no doubt he will.

“He’s a lovely, big scopey horse. He’s probably quick enough for five furlongs, but he obviously stays six and has won two small races over seven, so he’s got a lot going for him.”

Karl Burke: runs three in his bid for a first Duke of YorkCredit: Patrick McCann

Night Raider is joined by stablemates Elite Status and Marshman in the eight-strong line-up. The latter is having a third successive crack at the race, faring best when fifth in 2023 when he was sent off favourite.  

In contrast to Marshman, who is fit from the all-weather and also a third in the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster, Elite Status is making his seasonal return. However, he was a winner over this trip at both Group 3 and Listed level last year.

Burke said: “Elite Status is another we’re hoping can develop into a Group 1 horse. He’s very good. He probably wouldn’t have the natural speed that Night Raider’s got, but he stays the six furlongs very strongly. It’s a shame they have to run against each other.

“Marshman was a bit of a last-minute idea and he’s very fit. He probably prefers a little bit slower ground. He’s a good, solid Listed, Group 3 horse.” 

What they say

Adam Ryan, assistant trainer of Inisherin
It's an obvious start to the year and he's in good health. He's done well over the winter and has strengthened up again. He had a lot of racing in a short space of time last year and we're looking forward to getting him back in action with another year on his back. The wind surgery is something of nothing and he's had a nice long break since his last run at Haydock. Ryan Moore is arguably the greatest of all time, there are no words that need to be said about him – he's the best.

Jake Warren, spokesman for Bermuda Racing, owners of Flora Of Bermuda
Soft ground was her preference last year and she would probably prefer more ease in the ground, but this looks a good starting point and she’s a course-and-distance winner. She’ll probably improve for the run but should still give a good account.

Eve Johnson Houghton, trainer of Rage Of Bamby
There aren’t many runners but it’s a deep race. This looks a nice starting point to her season. We’ve always thought she was a Group horse and she likes York and fast ground.
Reporting by David Milnes 

Read the rest of Wednesday's previews:

2.10 York: Four-year-olds look to have the call again - analysis and trainer quotes for competitive York handicap 

2.42 York: Richard Spencer books Ryan Moore as Two Tribes goes to war on the Knavesmire in intriguing sprint handicap 

3.45 York: Why Aidan O'Brien's latest Classic trial favourite Whirl could be vulnerable in an open Musidora 

The Ballydoyle monopoly looks almost impossible to stop - but Oaks trial could provide hope for home guard 

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