Can Dan Skelton's new recruit make a winning start over fences? Analysis and trainer quotes for Carlisle's mares' handicap chase

Seven of the eight mares are returning from absences of 134 days or more, Dollar Collar being the exception.

Northern Air hasn’t been seen since disappointing behind Leloopa on her final run for Fergal O’Brien in a valuable Class 2 mares’ novices’ handicap hurdle at Kelso in March.

Now with Dan Skelton, this winning pointer retains lots of potential now she switches to fences off what could prove an attractive mark of 109.

She has largely raced at around two miles, but her point success was achieved at three miles on soft ground and there is stamina in her family.

A stiff 2m4f at Carlisle first time over fences could see this six-year-old, who cost £105,000 in November 2023, take a huge forward step.

Ostrava Du Berlais, perhaps best at shorter trips, doesn’t look ahead of the handicapper, while Maid Of Houxty, who has been off the racecourse since March 2023, ideally requires a stiffer test of stamina when fully tuned.

Celestial Fashion took well to fences last term, signing off with a creditable Wetherby second to Micks Jet in January.

Although no match for the winner, she jumped fluently that day, and seems sure to take advantage of a mark of 88 this term.

She carries a nice racing weight of 10st 6lb and would be of some each-way punting interest if the market signs are positive.

Race analysis by Richard Birch

Ground and weather

The going on Sunday was good to soft, soft in places on the chase track, with the hurdles course slightly easier at soft, good to soft in places. There was the chance of light, patchy rain and showers.

What they say

Lucinda Russell, joint-trainer of Dollar Collar
We tried her over fences a while ago, which didn’t really come off, but she jumped brilliantly back over them the other day so we thought we’d give it another go and our claimer Gregor Walkingshaw takes off a handy 10lb. It doesn’t look the deepest race so hopefully she'll have a good chance.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Northern Air
She’s new to us and I think she’ll improve for the outing going forward.

Stuart Coltherd, trainer of Similar Story
She was just touched off in this a year ago, so it makes sense to start her season off in it, and she goes there in good shape. My only concern would be if they get much more rain, as she wouldn’t want it too soft.

Donald Whillans, trainer of Maid Of Houxty
She’s been off for a wee while [968 days]. We could have got her back earlier but for the firm ground. She’s ready to start back but the trip is short of her best as she really wants three miles.

Reporting by David Milnes

In-form trainer's course ally

The course at which Glamorgan-based Sam Thomas has his best strike-rate is Carlisle, from where five of his eight runners have returned in triumph, including both horses he sent on the 600-mile journey last season.

It's quite a pointer to Steel Ally, due to make his chasing debut in a graduation chase at Carlisle (2.15), a race in which his hurdles rating suggests he could be well treated on these terms, as a runner-up in the National Spirit.

Thomas has made his usual strong start to the season, with five winners from his last nine runners.

Silver Trophy form on show

Grand Sefton-winning trainer Jamie Snowden is another with his string in great shape this autumn and his two runners in small fields at Kempton have clear chances to sustain the yard's form.

Idy Wood, who runs in a Pertemps qualifier (2.30), was fourth in Chepstow's Silver Trophy, which is working out well.

She Is For Me Boys, winner of an Irish point-to-point, makes her chasing debut in a handicap for mares, her rating being based on three runs over hurdles. She was the easy winner of two of those and it would be a surprise if the handicapper had got to grips with her at the first attempt.

Repeat winner?

Disco Annie returns to Carlisle (2.48), where she was the winner of two handicap hurdles last November and was then second on her chasing debut the next month. She hasn't won since but was luckless when last seen, getting taken out of the race by a faller at Hexham in June.

The seven-year-old is back down to her last winning mark in a race she won a year ago.