Can Charles Darwin buck the trend for losing favourites and prove another juvenile star for Aidan O'Brien in the Norfolk?

It seems counter-intuitive that, with speed and precocity being so en vogue in the breeding industry, the juvenile races at Royal Ascot are harder than ever to call.

The Norfolk Stakes embodies that. In its first nine years as a Group 2, the winners returned 11-4, 2-1, 11-4, 10-1, 16-1, 6-1, 4-1, 4-1 and 8-1. In the last decade, most winners have returned double-figure odds and two of the last three have been 50-1 and 150-1.

There will be several reasons for this, but the main one for form readers is that the races in the run-up are more competitive. This makes it harder to identify the outstanding candidates. At the same time, the rush to precocity has not made connections any more keen to run more than once before Royal Ascot.

This could be summarised as: if you see one that has knocked your eye out, trust it, and prices be damned. Personally, I cannot believe Afjan is not a lot closer to the favourites.

The maiden that opened the card on French Derby day at Chantilly was supposed to be all about the Aga Khan-owned Vardif. He did nothing wrong, coming six and a half lengths clear of the main body of the field. But Afjan gave him a head start and a hiding. He ran the last furlong two and a half lengths quicker than the favourite, and seven lengths faster than anything else. And that was after he had clocked an 11.17sec penultimate furlong.

Afjan is bred to be a Royal Ascot juvenile. His dam was second in the Queen Mary in 2016, chasing home the brilliant Lady Aurelia. Norfolk favourite Charles Darwin, while impressive so far, is unlikely to be as explosive as that filly. With so much talent near the top of the betting in the Norfolk, it could be a year that goes against the recent trend for big-priced winners.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

Charles Darwin pedigree stands out but there are others to consider

Coolmore's Charles Darwin will be bidding to avenge his brother Blackbeard's fourth-placed finish in the 2022 Coventry Stakes.

The colt is by a bona fide source of juvenile talent in No Nay Never, himself a previous winner of this race whose Royal Ascot-winning two-year-olds include Wednesday's Queen Mary winner True Love, Windsor Castle scorer Little Big Bear, Coventry winner Arizona and Albany star Meditate, while Blackbeard struck in the Prix Morny and Middle Park.

As befits a 5f Group 2, there are plenty of well-related speedsters on show from some of the sport’s powerhouse operations.

Wise Approach: has course-winning formCredit: Edward Whitaker

Godolphin went to 1,000,000gns for Wise Approach, a winner over course and distance in April and a Mehmas half-brother to another Prix Morny and Middle Park winner in Perfect Power, who won the 2022 Commonwealth Cup.

First Legion was a 500,000gns purchase from the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-Up Sale in April. A winner at York on debut last month and Listed-placed when second in the National Stakes at Sandown, he is by Mehmas and out of an Invincible Spirit half-sister to Group 2-winning miler Real World, who chased home Baaeed in the 2022 Queen Anne.
Kitty Trice

Norfolk favourite could be bad news for bookies

An Aidan O'Brien-trained hot-shot may seem like a sure thing but Charles Darwin will have to defy a 17-year losing trend for favourites in the day-three opener at Royal Ascot.

The Ballydoyle colt has been well supported since striking at Naas last month and is likely to go off odds-on for the fourth consecutive start according to Ladbrokes' Cal Gildart, who is expecting the No Nay Never colt to be popular on raceday.

"There have been nibbles on French raider Afjan after his impressive debut win on French Derby day but it's mostly one-way traffic for the Norfolk thanks to Charles Darwin's impressive performances and the always-popular Ryan Moore-Adrian O'Brien combo," he said.

Whistlejacket became the third Aidan O'Brien odds-on shot to fall victim to the Norfolk hoodoo 12 months ago and shrewd punters and bookmarkers alike may be hoping another outsider can upset the party by replicating the 12-1, 150-1 and 50-1 victories over the past three years.

Coral's David Stevens said: "Aidan O'Brien has already sent out two well-backed juvenile winners this week and Charles Darwin has strong credentials to be a third, but he's not one we'll be running away from on the day. There's decent opposition against him and in the last decade this has been a hard race for favourites."

Moore's two Norfolk victories came at 12-1 and 14-1 but he will be seeking to give O'Brien his first winner with a favourite since Johannesburg in 2001.

O'Brien said of Charles Darwin: "We've always thought he was very smart. He's had the three starts so he brings experience to the race, which is always a help. He's a fast colt and we thought this was the right race for him this week."

What they say

Henri-Francois Devin, trainer of Afjan
Like a lot of the Mehmas horses he's very straightforward with a very good temperament. This race comes a little bit quick but the family has lots of speed, his dam [Al Jorah – second to Lady Aurelia in the Queen Mary] was very good, so we think he'll run a very good race. He's much more straightforward to train than Al Jorah, a lot more relaxed. There are very few negatives, other than he’s a little bit less experienced than some of the others. The family like it a little bit softer but I expect him to handle conditions.

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Ameeq
He won nicely last time at Nottingham. He travelled off a very strong pace and it should put him in good stead for this. It's a very big step up in class but he deserves to take his chance.

Karl Burke, trainer of Clear Force and Naval Light
Naval Light put up a very strong performance at Beverley first time out and he should come on plenty for that. He's going to stay six furlongs and maybe even seven later on. If he's anywhere in touch with the leaders at halfway, he'll be finishing strongly. Clear Force is a good, sharp horse. He's only small and very much a two-year-old. We were disappointed with him in the National Stakes but I blame myself a bit for that, I left him a little short of work and he had a really good blow.

Josephine Soudan, trainer of Graft
His Listed win at Chantilly came in a very good time with good sectionals. He's in good form albeit this is a very big step up in class. I expect him to run right up to his best but we can't know yet how that will measure up against the opposition.

George Boughey, trainer of Hey Tru Blue
He ran well on his debut, which wasn't unexpected. His work has been pretty good since and he drops back to five furlongs here, but I thought this race would suit him better than the Coventry. His owners are all over from Australia.

Richard Brown, advisor for Wathnan Racing, owner of Sandal's Song
He's an interesting colt who won impressively at Gulfstream. His trainer George Weaver sent Crimson Advocate over to win the Queen Mary, so he knows what he's doing. I saw him the other day and he's a smashing colt.

Adrian Keatley, trainer of Star Material
You can put a line through his first run as he was stuck out on the wing, and I thought he was unlucky on his second start before winning on his third. He has plenty of experience, which will help him.

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Wise Approach
We are delighted with him. We'll have to see how the draw pans out, as we're drawn on the other side to Charles Darwin, but I couldn't fault our horse. He loves quick ground and ticks a few boxes.
Reporting by Catherine Macrae

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