Will talent over readiness prevail in the Listed Mares' Hurdle?

bet365 Mares' Hurdle (Listed) | 2m | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

This is the time of year where punters must decide whether talent overcomes readiness and vice-versa. The two mares who head the market for this two-mile prize possess the superior talent, but the three lower-rated runners have the fitness edge.

Molly Ollys Wishes and Martello Sky dip to Listed level after competing in Grade 1 company last spring, whereas Nina The Terrier, See The Sea and Island Mahee each have over 11lb to find on official ratings with the big two.

While Molly Ollys Wishes sauntered home by five-and-a-half-lengths in this contest last year, it is fair to argue her best form comes over further. The eight-year-old's two standout achievements were achieved over 2m5f on heavy ground at Warwick when she dominated the smart French mare Paul's Saga in 2021, and over 2m7½f when victorious in a gruelling soft-ground Grade 2 at Ascot in January.

Martello Sky is marginally the mare to beat on these terms, but has been campaigned exclusively over two and a half miles in the past 20 months. Could this trip be on the sharp side for her?

Nina The Terrier's recent second to Sonigino was boosted when the winner hacked up by 13 lengths at Chepstow this week, but there are trip concerns with her too. Another half-mile could see her to best effect and Racing Post Ratings cast doubt over her 131 official rating as her peak performance by our metrics is 128.

With class concerns over outsider Island Mahee, it may be prudent to consider the claims of See The Sea, the only front-runner in the field who is identically rated to Nina The Terrier and can be backed at over double the price.

The Donald McCain-trained mare's steady progression contradicts her exposed profile and this Listed prize likely represents more of a cup final for her. If See The Sea jumped the second-last correctly at Kempton last time she would surely have bagged second to runaway winner Sceau Royal and this could be the time she delivers.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Skelton wishes for another win

Last year it was an afterthought, this time it is the plan and Molly Ollys Wishes has the chance to make a bit of history.

Dan Skelton dropped the staying mare in trip to 2m for this Listed contest 12 months ago as he feared she'd have a tough race first time out in a competitive heat for the 3m West Yorkshire Hurdle.

Yet she didn't look short of pace in any way as she bounded home by more than five lengths that day, so this has been her intended starting point for 2022-23 all along.

Were she to come out on top once again, Molly Ollys Wishes – who went on to score over 2m7½f at Ascot last January – would become only the second dual-winner of this race after Lady Buttons (2018 and 2019) and would make Skelton the first trainer to win it three times, having also struck with Stephanie Frances in 2016.

This is certainly no fantasy, as Skelton said: "I think she can win it again. I'm very happy with her at home and any softening in the ground would be a definite positive. The race suited her last year and maybe it will happen again."

Martello Sky is also dropping back in trip, having been racing with great success at around 2m4f and won four of her last starts at that distance.

But trainer Lucy Wadham said: "She's not dropping back in trip by as far as Molly Ollys Wishes, people can make too much of distances and she's pretty versatile.

"She's in good shape, training well, and the proof will be in the racing."

Nina The Terrier steps up in class after finishing second on a 2m handicap at Chepstow three-weeks ago.

"I was delighted how well she ran on her comeback at Chepstow as the plan was to sharpen her up over two miles for this race," said trainer Alan King.

"The chances are we'll be stepping her up in trip again and we hope she'll be a major factor in the good mares' hurdles this season."
Reporting by David Carr

Saturday's race previews:

1.30 Ascot: 'We watched him school and he was electric' - Goshen camp confident

2.40 Ascot: 'He's better here than anywhere else' - who wins out of the Ascot specialists?

3.00 Wetherby: can Sporting John make up for lost time on his return from a 287-day absence?

3.15 Ascot: 'He loves it at Ascot' - course form can come to the fore in valuable handicap

3.35 Wetherby: 'Everything looks right for him' - Nicholls on Charlie Hall contender Bravemansgame

Sign up to receive On The Nose, our essential daily newsletter, from the Racing Post. Your unmissable morning feed, direct to your email inbox every morning.