'He's very unexposed' - find out who's flying under the radar in handicaps

Saturday: 2.10 Ascot
Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle (Listed) | 1m7½f | 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

It goes without saying that the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival are among the strongest run all season and this year the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle worked out best of the lot.

To have any chance in what has become known as the Boodles you must have a well-handicapped juvenile, and as a result many go into it having been campaigned with that one race in mind. That often means it is chock-full of horses who are ahead of their marks.

That was certainly the case last season and the winner wasn't only well treated, he was a Grade 1 winner masquerading as a handicapper. Jeff Kidder went on to land a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse before beating the Triumph winner Quilixios in a Grade 1 at Punchestown.

The fifth, seventh, eighth, ninth, 11th, 13th, 15th and 19th in the Boodles have all won at least once since and several twice. One notable exception is the third, Elham Valley, but he has run only once since over hurdles and that resulted in a good third back at Cheltenham at the April meeting.

It's possible to argue that Elham Valley's Boodles run was a bit of a fluke. He was 66-1 after all, but he finished faster than anything bar the winner and is only 3lb higher in this contest.

You have to go back to 2011 and subsequent Champion Hurdle seventh Brampour to find the last four-year-old to land this race though, and Progressive and Megan are also that age.

Six of the last nine winners were aged five, but there aren't any five-year-olds in this race so trend followers will be looking at the six-year-olds. That age group has won three runnings in the last decade and that brings in the well-fancied Soaring Glory, Boothill, Ajero and Wild Max.

Soaring Glory also brings festival form, courtesy of his distant fourth to Appreciate It in the Supreme. That was a Grade 1 but it looked weak at the time and has yet to throw up a winner.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Wild Max and Bathsheba Bay
Angus [Cheleda] takes a handy 7lb off Wild Max but after Ascot I suspect he'll go novice chasing. Whatever Bathsheba Bay does I feel he'll improve for the run.

David Pipe, trainer of Leoncavallo
He ran a great race to finish third in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. I'm sure he'll run his usual game race – he retains lots of enthusiasm.

Kim Bailey, trainer of Ajero
He's grown a bit and filled out a bit from the summer and is in a good place. He'll improve for the run but I'm very happy with him. He's a happier horse going right-handed than left-handed.

Harry Fry, trainer of Boothill
He's very unexposed – he's only had one run over hurdles and couldn't have been more impressive when winning at Taunton. It couldn't have been easy for the handicapper to give him a mark on the basis of that one run. He's rated 135, and we think he's better than that.

Lucy Wadham, trainer of Miss Heritage
She tends to need her first run of the season. I hope they get the rain that's been forecast as on soft ground she's a very good mare.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Elham Valley
He's come out of his summer break in great form and we're very happy with him. He wants soft ground and the rain there will suit him.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Progressive
She's been in great order since her win at Chepstow. I was actually going to wait for something a bit easier, but she worked very well during the week, so we've decided to have a trip here. It's a Listed race, which gives her a chance of some black type if possible, and it's a decent pot, while she's at the right end of the weights.

Stuart Edmunds, trainer of Megan
She looked like running a big race last time when tipping over at the third-last at Chepstow. It's a deeper, stronger race this time, but I'm hopeful she'll run well.
Reporting by Richard Birch

Saturday previews and analysis:

2.30 Wetherby: D-day for star hurdler Paisley Park with switch to fences under consideration

2.45 Ascot: Editeur may just have the edge in round three between two progressive chasers

2.50 Down Royal: Elliott, Nicholls and De Bromhead on the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase

3.05 Wetherby: The Cyrname conundrum: do you play or lay the Charlie Hall favourite?

3.20 Ascot: can classy Vinndication confirm himself a Graded performer in a handicap?

3.25 Down Royal: 'He's taking on the best horse ever to look through a bridle' – Envoi rivals

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