'Why will he win? It's a hard question to answer, but he should go well'

Friday: Cheltenham 2.25
Dahlbury Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) | 3m2f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

The average winner of the opening-day highlight of Cheltenham’s December Gold Cup meeting over the last ten years has been a nine-year-old, on their 17th chase start, beating eight rivals. Add in the fact only half went off at single-figure odds for their next race and there are definite trends that do not sit all that comfortably with the race’s 'premier handicap' status, making it sound more like a waiting room for veterans' chases.

But competitiveness and betting appeal are not causally linked, and the following fact should make punters' ears prick up: three of the last ten winners have returned double-figure SPs, and all but one was 5-1 or bigger. Considering this is seemingly a relatively small-field race for exposed horses, winners can be surprisingly rewarding to find.

Meanwhile, the early market has settled on the most obvious option: last year's winner, Commodore.

He won by a wide margin 12 months ago, although he had been given a pretty big start by his rivals on a course that is known to offer plenty of joy to front-runners anyway. Conversely, he was never in the hunt on his only start since in the Grand National.

Overall, the challengers are more interesting than your average for this race. You could even call some of them youngsters. Nassalam is five and finished a staying-on sixth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, while Undersupervision won the Grimthorpe in March as a novice and Switch Hitter is on just his fifth chase start and represents some sound novice form.

Even some of the older sorts have plenty of course form to call on. Captain Cattisock won here in April and Eva's Oskar was second in what is usually a stronger premier handicap than this at the November meeting.

Then there is Spiritofthegames, who has not won in 14 visits to Cheltenham but has recorded his six best runs on Racing Post Ratings at the track.

A final word goes to Dominateur, who showed the faintest glimmer on his first run for Ben Pauling here last month. He looked promising at one stage for Oliver Sherwood and is chucked in on his best novice form. Although Dominateur is nine and largely unconsidered in the early betting, we know that neither of those need rule a horse out of this particular race.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'He's got a squeak'

When you spend £30,000 on something, you kind of want to test it out, which is something Ben Pauling has hardly been able to do with Dominateur.

He bought the nine-year-old, who now races in the colours of Dominic Griffiths, at a sale in May 2021, but a leg injury kept the new purchase on the sidelines last term.

There was, however, encouragement from his first start for the stable at Cheltenham last month.

Dominateur's trainer Ben PaulingCredit: Steve Davies

"I thought he was a horse who looked like he'd lost his way, but he'd shown some good form and was well fancied for a Welsh National not so long ago," Pauling said, recalling the purchase.

"I thought a change of scenery might bring about some improvement, but he picked up a leg injury early in the autumn of 2021, so we had to give him time.

"He came back in this summer and was 100 per cent sound, and he looks a million dollars. I knew he'd massively need his first run and he ran nicely for a long way, so I hope he can progress again from there.

"With that run, he'd be fitter now, and he jumped well, which he hadn't always done in the past. He travelled sweetly too, so I think he's got a squeak."

Dominateur was regarded as a mud–loving sort when with Oliver Sherwood and the trainer added: "They're calling the ground good, but I think it will be tacky, holding ground under the frost covers, so he should be grand on it."

What they say

David Dennis, trainer of Broken Quest
We were delighted with his run at the track last time, which was over his minimum trip of two and a half miles. He just got outrun but was giving weight to a decent horse [Magic Dancer]. Three and a quarter miles on a stiff track such as Cheltenham is probably stretching his stamina, but he's run well there and on the ground, so the trip is the only question mark.

David Dennis: optimistic about Broken Quest's prospectsCredit: David Dew

Dan Skelton, trainer of Spiritofthegames
I think he'll go well. He likes the track and it's a slightly new trip for him, but he stays three miles well. He should have a chance, but why is he going to win this one when he hasn't won for a while? It's hard for me to answer that question, but he's in good form.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Switch Hitter
He might need the run. He was ready early but cut himself schooling, so I had to give him a quiet month. I'm catching up a little bit with him and whatever he does he'll improve for the run.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Captain Cattistock
He ran really well last time and we were very pleased. He had a hard race, so we've freshened him up and hopefully he'll be our best chance of the weekend. He loves Cheltenham and that ground, so it looks a really good opportunity for him. We're really hoping the meeting will be on and he can run well.
Reporting by James Burn

Friday previews:

1.30 Bangor: Only The Bold sets the standard as he bids to maintain perfect record for Pipe

3.35 Cheltenham: Can smart chaser Dusart give weight all round over hurdles on his reappearance?

Cheltenham Friday: Too good to be true? Constitution Hill's only conqueror tackles handicap off 136

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