Why the ratings make the Kingmaker Novices' Chase look tighter than it is

2.05 Warwick
Agetur UK Kingmaker Novices' Chase (Grade 2) | 2m | 5yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Since future Gold Cup winner Long Run landed this in 2010 the Kingmaker has tended to be won by speedy sorts who can handle the flat Warwick circuit and fences which come thick and fast.

That is probably part of the reason why Nube Negra has been aimed at this race since he was second in the Henry VIII at Sandown on Tingle Creek day. Trainer Dan Skelton is evidently fond of running horses at Warwick, his local course, and has identified his six-year-old as more of an Aintree contender than one for Cheltenham. Nube Negra is not entered in the Racing Post Arkle.

In my view Nube Negra's form stands out to a greater extent than the 3lb he has in hand on BHA ratings. Second place is held jointly by Djingle, whose rating comes from a positive reading of his fall at Carlisle when held by Midnight Shadow (albeit conceding 7lb), and Rouge Vif. The latter was second to Global Citizen in the Wayward Lad, but four of the six defeated horses finished within five lengths of the winner and the form is likely to prove muddling.

Conversely, Nube Negra's Henry VIII run compares favourably with the Tingle Creek just over an hour later. He jumped well, as he had when whizzing around Fakenham the time before and when completing a simple task here on his chasing debut.

Torpillo also has winning novice chase form around Warwick, having beaten Mister Fisher in November. That was enough to ensure he went off favourite for the Henry VIII, but he faded having cut out the running. He and Nube Negra are the likeliest leaders once more.

Precious Cargo and Moonlighter have run against each other the last twice, albeit the first does not really count as Moonlighter unseated Lizzie Kelly at the third. He got his revenge under Tom Scudamore at Newbury next time in a driving finish. The weights are slightly more in favour of Precious Cargo this time, although whether that justifies him being half the price, as was the case on Friday evening, is a moot point.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

Key stats

Harry Whittington, trainer of Rouge Vif, will be looking for another Kingmaker success after winning the race in 2018 with Saint Calvados.

Nicky Henderson has a 29 per cent strike-rate at Warwick over the past five years, with 30 winners from 103 runners.

What they say

Dan Skelton, trainer of Nube Negra
He's got a big chance. We've been very happy with him since Sandown and this has always been the plan. The ground should be okay and he's got a leading chance.

Nube Negra (right) will bid for his first Graded victory in the Kingmaker at WarwickCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Precious Cargo
It's a very tight race and they’re all rated within a few pounds of each other. We’ve put a tongue-tie on which I hope might help and he loves soft ground, so I’m hopeful about him.

Harry Whittington, trainer of Rouge Vif
He's got a good, solid chance. His form looks solid from his last run at Kempton. He wouldn't mind drying ground so we're looking forward to running him.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Torpillo
He’s won well around Warwick before so hopefully he’ll run well again. He’s won on all types of ground so there's no worries there.
Reporting by Tommy Churchyard

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