Why Notre Pari has the ideal profile for Lanzarote Hurdle success

2.40 Kempton
Unibet Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed) | 2m5f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Tipster analysis

Since being extended to its current distance of 2m5f, the Lanzarote Hurdle has, if anything, become a breeding ground for future staying chasers. Saphir Du Rheu, Tea For Two and Yala Enki won the race in consecutive years during the mid-2010s.

All of them did so early in their development, with Yala Enki rated just 130 at the time of his success. That speaks of the record novices have in the race. Four of the last eight winners have been novices, which is significant for a big handicap at this stage of the season.

The profile of Notre Pari is archetypal. After finishing second in a point-to-point, he ran three times over two miles in novice hurdles. He did not win, but was always going to improve up in distance and duly did on his handicap debut, landing a steadily run race at Aintree in stylish fashion. He is up 8lb but can only do better in a big-field scenario.

Instinct is that this is an ordinary renewal of the Lanzarote and the ratings would tentatively agree. Recent history suggests an RPR performance 10lb higher than a horse's BHA mark is required and those at the top of the current figures have only got about halfway there.

One worthy of mention, as a contender but also as a pace angle, is Burrows Park. He won a small-field race at Hereford last time, but the times suggest that it was a test from the off and this eight-year-old battled hard to beat Ballyellis, who has run well again since. It is rare to find conditions at Hereford and Kempton that correspond, but he might have got lucky if the ground does not dry out too much.

Some winners are on their way up in trip. Fewer are going the other way, but Debestyman is and he has been shaping like this trip will suit better in how he has run over three miles of late. He might be rated only 118 but has been competitive in Class 2s at Newbury and Cheltenham, and winners of this race have come in as low as 123.

Keith Melrose, betting editor

What the statistics say

Tony Carroll is more commonly known for his exploits on the Flat, but has three winners from his last six runners over obstacles and bids to add to that tally with Vive Le Roi.

A weight advantage has proved key to this contest in the past, with jockeys claiming 5lb or more winning five of the last six runnings. Lucy Turner claims 7lb aboard the Venetia Williams-trained Burrows Park, while Connor Brace takes 3lb off Theinval's back.

Nine of the last ten winners had previously won going right-handed.

What the trainers say

Neil King, trainer of Canyon City
He’s in good form and has run well over course and distance before. He wouldn’t be the best handicapped horse in the race, so we go there in hope.

Tony Carroll, trainer of Vive Le Roi
He has a good chance, is a competitive horse and tries really hard. I don’t know why but all his form is left-handed but I see no reason why he wouldn’t go right-handed. He’s in good form and is fresh.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Burrows Edge
Burrows Edge had a fall over fences the other day but is in very good form. He's not badly handicapped and I thought a race like this over two-miles-five-furlongs around Kempton is perfect for him. That fall didn’t seem to affect him, and I schooled him over hurdles on Thursday and he was great.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Burrows Park
Plenty of rain will help our chances. He’s probably better over a bit further but he deserves to take his chance.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Notre Pari
He’s in good order and looks like he’s going the right way so hopefully a strongly run handicap will suit him well. He looks the unexposed horse in the race and is going to have to improve again from Aintree, but that’s possible and I’m looking forward to running him. Hopefully he’s going to be a progressive horse.

Tom Messenger, assistant to Dan Skelton, trainer of Northofthewall and Gortroe Joe
Northofthewall won nicely last time out. He's a second-season novice so has got more experience and has an each-way chance. Gortroe Joe travelled well last time but did not find much under pressure. He's handicapped to win a nice race but is tricky to catch right.

Noel Williams, trainer of Vinnie Dev
He probably deserves to be an outsider but that’s only reflective of his Doncaster run which I was a little underwhelmed by. Prior to that he ran very well at Uttoxeter and Ascot, where he looked progressive. He was a bit weak in his finish at Doncaster and hopefully the cheekpieces will help to focus him in the run in. If he puts his best foot forward he’ll run very well.

Tim Vaughan, trainer of Tight Call
I think he’s got very solid form. Some horses take a run or two to click after a breathing op but I’m hoping he won’t. He seems in a good place, is a nice horse and the conditions are all in his favour. The weights work out nicely as well.

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