'The Irish could have a bit in hand' - who fears the raiders in £100k handicap?

Friday: 3.35 Lingfield
Sovereign Handicap Hurdle | 2m | 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

When I heard Lingfield would be the course to host the inaugural Winter Million in the middle of January my reaction was: why Lingfield? Don't get me wrong, I love Lingfield and it's beautiful on a summer's day, but ground conditions are like a bog over jumps in January.

Sure enough, heavy ground prevails for the first day of three and such conditions are hardly conducive for classy jumps racing. However, some horses absolutely revel in it and Metier looked brilliant when winning the Tolworth at Sandown around a year ago, just as easily as Constitution Hill did, on heavy ground. This will be his first outing on heavy since.

Metier is bred for testing conditions, too. He is by Mastercraftsman out of a dam who recorded her two highest Racing Post Ratings on the Flat on soft and heavy ground.

All four of Metier's wins have come on ground with soft or heavy in the description and he shaped like he might be returning to form when fourth in a hot handicap at Ascot last time.

Emmet Mullins: shrewd operatorCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

The Irish rarely miss a chance to plunder some British prize-money and Emmet Mullins is back to try to enhance his 35 per cent strike-rate (8-23) in Britain in the last five seasons.

Ground is definitely the concern for his big hope, Carrarea, who has run his best races on good going and was a beaten 11-8 favourite on his sole start on softer (yielding) conditions. Half-brother The Butcher Said is also best suited by good ground, so pedigree backs that up.

Going won't be an issue for another Irish raider, Lucky Max. He has won his last three starts on soft and heavy ground and trainer Sean Doyle is 1-4 over jumps in Britain in recent years.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Irish three-handed for feature

Ireland launches a three-pronged assault on the £100,000 main event over hurdles including the in-form Lucky Max, trained by Sean Doyle.

Lucky Max made a winning reappearance at Clonmel in October and has continued his rise through the handicap with a pair of comfortable victories at Cork, most recently in early December.

Doyle said: "Lucky Max seems to be in very good form. He started heading over on Thursday morning and should arrive at Lingfield in the evening, so fingers crossed he travels over okay.

"After maturing really well, he has started to hurdle properly. He was a little up in the air, even going back to his point-to-points, and it has taken him a while to get his jumping together. He probably wasn't quite right last season either, but he seems a different horse now."

Of the task in hand, the trainer added: "We're hoping for the best – it is a competitive race and definitely a step up on anything he has faced before. If he could pick up some nice prize-money, we would be delighted."

What they say

Sam Twiston-Davies, rider of Gowel Road
He has a lot of weight but two miles on heavy ground is right up his street and he would have an each-way chance in an open race.

Harry Fry, trainer of Metier
It was nice to see him bounce back in the big handicap hurdle at Ascot before Christmas and this race has been very much on the radar since then. Everything about the race should suit him well and we are looking forward to seeing him back on his favoured heavy ground.

Gary Moore, trainer of Hudson De Grugy
We know he likes the ground and the track as he won well there before Christmas but this looks a better class of race. He goes there in good shape but you never know what you're taking on as these Irish horses could have a bit in hand.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Antunes and Destrier
Their form isn't there yet, but Antunes is suited by slow ground and Destrier has never run in a good race off such a little weight, maybe he can pick up some pieces. Our eyes are open, we're not expecting fireworks.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Hacker Des Places
I think he'll still improve for the run a little bit to be honest. He's handicapped to run in these sort of races, but he won't mind the ground.

Evan Williams, trainer of Mack The Man
He ran okay last time and deserves to take his chance. It's important to support such ventures and hopefully he can come back with some cash.

Emmet Mullins, trainer of Carrarea and Sevenna Star
In terms of their Irish and British marks, it doesn't look like they're well treated in comparison to Lucky Max, who would seem a big danger. If the race was run on Irish ratings, Carrarea would be getting 4lb more from Lucky Max and Sevenna Star would be getting 5lb more. Carrarea probably got a little bit outpaced last time at Fairyhouse but ran well. Coming back in trip might not be a help but hopefully the ground should help to even that out. I'd draw a line through Sevenna Star's last run. He's had bits of health issues but seems to be in better form now.
Reporting By David Milnes

Friday's race previews:

1.50 Lingfield: Can Eclair D'Ainay back up Wetherby win for the Skeltons in £50,000 event?

2.25 Lingfield: 'This is a good race for him' - On The Blind Side given golden opportunity

3.00 Lingfield: 'The boys who own him are quite excited about this' - novice chase quotes

3.35 Lingfield: 'The Irish could have a bit in hand' - who fears the raiders in £100k handicap?

6.15 Dundalk: Group 1 winner Thunder Moon warms up for Saudi target in classy conditions event

Meydan: O'Meara's admirable stalwart Lord Glitters bids for another Meydan victory

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