Who will win the 2020 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood according to race trends?

The Qatar Sussex Stakes, which takes place live on ITV at 3.15pm on Wednesday, has attracted a magnificent seven runners. Here we look at which factors have proved useful to finding the winner of the Glorious Goodwood Group 1, based on the last ten races.

Form pick

Each of the last ten winners of the Sussex Stakes entered the race in hot form, having finished in the first three the time before, and if that trend were to continue then 2,000 Guineas winner Kameko would crucially be ruled out.

The Andrew Balding-trained son of Kitten's Joy was fourth in the Derby at Epsom, but that was over four furlongs further than his Guineas success and he still warrants respect back over a mile.

Kameko: finished fourth in the Derby last timeCredit: Edward Whitaker

Vatican City is the other runner to miss out, having finished eighth in the Derby.

Big-stage success

Nine of the last ten winners of Wednesday's top-level clash at Goodwood had previously won or been placed in a Group 1, with 2017 scorer Here Comes When the only exception.

Mohaather is yet to succeed in that regard, having finished fifth and seventh on his two starts at the top level. That seventh, however, came when he ran into all sorts of traffic in the Queen Anne, and he duly made amends next time in the Group 2 Summer Mile.

Circus Maximus is a three-time Group 1 winner, Siskin and Kameko have won at the top level twice while Wichita, Vatican City and San Donato have each been placed.

Qatar Sussex Stakes card and betting

Racing Post Ratings

Nine of the last ten winners of the Sussex Stakes have had an adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 128 or more, which would eliminate all but two contenders from this year's running.

Mohaather (129) and Circus Maximus (128) are the ones to meet that criterion largely thanks to their victories in their respective runs last time.

Mohaather: boasts the highest adjusted RPR of the Sussex Stakes fieldCredit: Mark Cranham

Mohaather's Summer Mile romp has already been mentioned, but Circus Maximus showed all the guts, desire and determination needed to win on the big stage when seeing off Terebellum by a head in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.

Kameko just misses out on the trend with an adjusted RPR of 127.

Final verdict

This looks one of the most competitive Sussex Stakes we've seen in the past few years with two Classic winners taking on their elders, and the trends give preference to Circus Maximus, who ticks all the boxes and is a proven performer in these type of races.

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