Who knows what to expect from American Mike but former winner Rebel Gold looks the value at whopping 20-1

There are ifs, buts and maybes about a whole host of the 13 runners in this lucrative and fascinating handicap chase and all three certainly apply to American Mike.

If he comes back to anything close to his best maybe he would wallop this lot off a mark of 146 given he beat Fact To File off level weights last season, but he has been underwhelming of late and seemed to be beaten fair and square over this course and distance last time.

That said, he was beaten only two lengths after making a mistake at the last and it was his first time over that sort of trip for a year and a half. Carl Millar takes off 5lb here and American Mike could easily exploit a mark of 146, but you just can't trust him these days and it's probably best to look elsewhere.

Gordon Elliott won this event for three years in a row with Ball D'Arc (2017), Doctor Phoenix (2018) and Duca De Thaix (2019) and the Cullentra camp is also represented by Fils D'Oudairies here. He has been banging his head against a brick wall in Grade 1 hurdle races against State Man and Brighterdaysahead, so a return to chasing off an 8lb lower mark makes him interesting.

Willie Mullins and Paul Townend teamed up to land the spoils 12 months ago with Uncle Phil and this time Hunters Yarn appears to be the number one from the Closutton stable.

A faller on his debut over fences at Fairyhouse when appearing to have a beginners' chase at his mercy, he made no mistake back here next time when beating Path D'Oroux, who reopposes here, by ten lengths last January.

Hunters Yarn: impressive winner at Fairyhouse last time out

Hunters Yarn: course-and-distance winner last January with Path D'Oroux (yellow and green) well behindCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Pitched in at the deep end when fifth to Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle at Cheltenham, he again found the water too deep when no match for Energumene on his return to action in the Hilly Way at Cork. It is shallower here and he cannot be underestimated off a mark of 152 at a track he obviously likes. He could be the class act.

Path D'Oroux, the mount of Keith Donoghue, appears to have the best claims of Gavin Cromwell's three runners.

The Henry de Bromhead-trained Lets Go Champ must have a squeak back down in trip after his fine third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November. He travelled like a dream to the second-last there and hit a low of 2-1 in running on the Betfair Exchange, so it's no surprise to see connections have a try over this speed test.

Don't forget 2023 winner Rebel Gold. He's getting on a bit now at 12 years of age, but he showed spark on his last visit here in November and would have been a lot closer over hurdles at Thurles before Christmas had he not made a mess of the second-last. Early shows of around 20-1 could underestimate him with Conor Smithers booked to take off a valuable 7lb. He's the value option.

Rebel back in search of more gold for Foley

The Foley family will be forever known for their exploits with Danoli and those heady days of the 1990s when the whole country felt they owned a part of the legendary hurdler, but Tom's son Pat has been making a real name for himself as a trainer and Rebel Gold provided him with his first big win when landing this contest two years ago.

Rebel Gold: bidding to repeat his 2023 win in this raceCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

The recently retired Denis O'Regan was in the saddle that day as the pair waltzed to a nine-length victory over Dunvegan and now Rebel Gold is back with young 7lb claimer Conor Smithers in the plate.

Foley said: "All is good with Rebel Gold, he seems very well in himself, and we've been lucky enough with the weather. It's been bad enough down here, but not as bad as some places and we've been able to ride him out every day. We felt we had to claim off him to have him as competitive as we can off his mark. Conor is a good rider and rides out for me, so I'm more than happy to put him up."

What they say

Gordon Elliott, trainer of American Mike and Fils D'Oudairies
Everyone knows American Mike is a very good horse on his day, but it's just a case of which American Mike shows up. He ran well enough over this course and distance the last day and Carl Millar's claim will be a big help. He really should be up to running a big race. He's talented. Fils D'Oudairies has run some huge races over hurdles for us and we thought this was a nice place to try him over fences again. He seems in very good form at home.

John Queally, trainer of The Banger Doyle
He's been a smashing horse for us and hopefully we'll pick up some of the crumbs. He always runs well in this sort of race and I've no doubt he will again here. He's been training really well.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Lets Go Champ
He ran a cracker in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham and we felt it was worth dropping down to this sort of trip to see how he gets on. He travelled really well for a long way at Cheltenham, so it might suit. Let's see how he gets on.

Philip Rothwell, trainer of Captains Nephew
He's in great order. Coming back to this trip will help and he's won around Fairyhouse as well. The softer the ground the better for him and with the 7lb claim he's got a great each-way shout.

Tom Gibney, trainer of Must Be Obeyed
She's in good form. I have no doubt two and a half miles is her optimum trip, but this is on our doorstep and she might get away with it at a track like Fairyhouse. There looks to be plenty of pace in the race, so you'll probably need to stay in the conditions.

Saturday previews:

1.15 Ffos Las: 'We've trained him for this weekend' - key insight as Pauling prospect takes on Skelton mare in intriguing Towton

2.00 Newcastle: 'He goes there in brilliant form' - analysis and key quotes for Newcastle's 1m2f handicap

2.40 Chelmsford: Will change in trip help Eagle Day in his hat-trick bid for David Evans?

2.58 Ffos Las: 'Is 120 is a nice mark? Hopefully, he's better than that' - all you need to know for a fascinating handicap

3.15 Chelmsford: Expert analysis and trainer quotes for competitive sprint handicap