Where to find a Cheltenham Festival winner: the key data for Trials day

Eight races take place at the final meeting at Cheltenham before the festival and, based on data for the last nine years, we are likely to see three horses competing across the day who will go on to win in March.

Between 2012 and 2020 (last year's fixture was lost due to waterlogging) there have been 25 horses who have competed at Cheltenham on the final Saturday in January and then come home in front in one of the races at the festival.

In terms of those festival races won, there is a slight bias towards Trials day producing horses who go on to score over fences (15 of the 25 winners, or 60 per cent of the total) with the Ultima Handicap Chase on the opening day the one plundered most often.

Coo Star Sivola and Un Temps Pour Tout were successful in the Ultima Handicap Chase after running over fences on Trials day but, intriguingly, others have used the Cleeve Hurdle as the springboard for victory in the same race.

Connections of Un Temps Pour Tout did so in 2017, as did those involved with The Druids Nephew in 2015, while going back a couple of years before 2012, the same approach was taken with Bensalem in 2011 and Chief Dan George in 2010 in their festival success.

The five runners in this year's Cleeve (3.05) appear unlikely to go over fences in March with their target the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle, a race won five times by horses who have competed on Trials day since 2012. Three of those – Big Buck's, Thistlecrack and Paisley Park – won the Cleeve before following up in March, while Lisnagar Oscar and Cole Harden were beaten in the Grade 2 before triumphing on the third day of the festival.

The record of horses at the festival who have run in the Cleeve Hurdle in the same season makes it a must-watch race.

In previous years, the same 'must-watch' tag would also apply to the 2m4½f novice handicap chase (1.20), with six horses contesting that race going on to festival success.

However, whether it continues to have the same impact is open to question, with four of those in question capturing the Listed 2m4½f novice handicap chase in March, which was scrapped in favour of the Grade 2 Mares' Chase from last year.

Simply The Betts, successful in the race on Trials day in 2020, followed up in the Plate at the festival having breached the top rating for the novice handicap that year, and Saturday's runners could potentially follow a similar route.

Based on recent years, the Cotswold Chase (2.30) is unlikely to have much bearing on the festival, although Frodon won it before following up in the Ryanair Chase in 2019, while the winner of the Triumph Hurdle Trial may be worth noting as both Peace And Co and Defi Du Seuil took it before scoring in the big one in March. Incidentally, no beaten horse in that race has won at the festival.

One final piece of data is that Nick Williams has scored at the festival with his last two runners who have contested the Grade 3 handicap chase (1.55) on Trials day. Galahad Quest goes for the trainer in the race this year.

Trials day card and betting

Read more Saturday previews . . .

1.55 Cheltenham: 'He's in the form of his life' – Milton Harris bullish about Jacamar

2.30 Cheltenham: 'He's got to come through this' – D-day for big Gold Cup hope Chantry House

2.45 Doncaster: will the River Don prove an 'easy route' for Unanswered Prayers?

3.05 Cheltenham: 'Any criticism of him is surely harsh' – Graeme Rodway on Cleeve favourite Champ

3.20 Doncaster: Fusil Raffles and Cap Du Nord among leading fancies in wide-open Sky Bet Chase

3.40 Cheltenham: does Nicky Henderson hold winning formline in clash of two potential stars?

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