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Richard Birch on why Paul Nicholls is the man to side with in Pendil
1.15 Kempton
Betway Pendil Novices' Chase (Grade 2) | 2m4½f | ITV4/RTV
Before even looking at the runners in the Pendil, you could probably guess that Paul Nicholls will hold the key to the race. The champion trainer has won ten of the last 14 runnings of the race and his last two, Frodon and Cyrname, have been the classiest.
His two runners this year are Master Tommytucker and Southfield Stone. Both have strong course form. Master Tommytucker's win over Who Dares Wins – a classy Flat type who reopposes – over 2m2f here in November is probably the best form on offer and he will only be better suited by this longer trip. Whether he would have stayed 3m in the Kauto Star is moot, but he showed loads of zest before getting four out all wrong and coming down.
Southfield Stone's course form came over hurdles, he won the Dovecote on this card 12 months ago. His chase form is strong, he has been second to Brewin'upastorm and third in a good handicap off a pretty hefty mark. The feeling is he will always be best when the ground is within the neighbourhood of good, so much will depend on how well Kempton dries out.
Early favourite Commanche Red also has course form, having swept to success in a novice handicap here on Boxing Day. He beat Simply The Betts, On The Slopes and Mr Mcgo among others that day, but none of them covered themselves in glory, while he was also helped by Roll Again falling and hampering a few on the way down.
Course form also crops up with Erick Le Rouge, who got a well-judged ride in handicap company off 134 last time. This step up in grade is every bit as steep as prices approaching 10-1 would imply.
Pistol Whipped deserves a mention, if only in terms of his potential. He recorded a taking win on his chase debut at Leicester and fell at the first next time. It is clear he has a potent turn of foot and it would not be a surprise were he to feature if this turns into a sprint up the Kempton straight. Admittedly, with Master Tommytucker in the field that seems unlikely.
Analysis by Keith Melrose, betting editor
Gordon hoping Red can strike on important day
Chris Gordon is thrilled to have runners in three of the Graded contests at Kempton, spearheaded by Commanche Red, who could start favourite for the Pendil.
"It's great for a stable of our size to have three runners in the Graded races at such a big meeting," Gordon said.
"Commanche Red is in great form. We've given him a nice, easy time since his win at Kempton on Boxing Day, and that form has stood up well. We're also represented by Highway One O One in the Betway Handicap Chase and Highway One O Two in the Dovecote. It's a big day for us."
Paul Nicholls provides strong opposition in the shape of Master Tommytucker, the mount of Harry Cobden, and Southfield Stone.
Master Tommytucker has not been blessed with great fortune during his five-race career, but the nine-year-old has always been held in high regard.
"We're on a bit of a retrieval mission with him after his fall in the Kauto Star over Christmas," Nicholls said. "He'll go close."
Southfield Stone is also expected to run well. "He's done well since his win at Musselburgh last time out," Nicholls said. "He should also go close."
Lizzie Kelly believes Erick Le Rouge will run a big race at his favourite track. The six-year-old is unbeaten in three starts at the Sunbury venue, and his rider said: "I think we've got a good chance as it's at Kempton again over two and a half miles. I'd forgotten he was a novice because he is so good at jumping and I hadn't really had very much to do with him, so I'm really looking forward to it and hopefully it will all go to plan."
Nicky Henderson pitches Pistol Whipped into Grade 2 company. "He won well the first time over fences and then unfortunately got tripped over by another horse at the first fence next time so we learnt nothing," he said.
"If he's going to go anywhere I've got to get a third run into him, so it's an ambitious place to come to, but there have been so few opportunities with the weather that I'm chucking him in a bit deep. He's good at his job, but we've just got to see whether he’s up to this grade."
Who Dares Wins, who has regularly worn cheekpieces on the Flat, is fitted with them for the first time over jumps.
Trainer Alan King said: "It's his third run over fences, having been runner-up in his first two, and, although he is stepping up in class, having missed several opportunities in recent weeks, we need to find out whether he is worth his place or Cheltenham or one to keep back for the Flat."
Reporting by Richard Birch
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