The punter's dilemma - stick with the form book or back a possible improver?

Monday: 3.12 Windsor
Hippodrome Handicap | 1m3½f | 3yo+ | Sky

This is the classic conundrum for punters. Do you stick to the proven form and a more exposed horse, or go for the possible improver?

Wahraan comes into the possible improver category. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute and brought along in typically quiet fashion, the lightly raced four-year-old will be having only his second run of the season and looks certain to come on for his reappearance.

He needs to improve on his third of five at Newmarket in August to be competitive, but is 2lb lower in the weights.

The one thing we do know is that he will handle soft ground as he won on a testing surface at Pontefract last season.

What of those with proven form? Bad Company looks the best of them, having followed up his heavy ground victory at Epsom last month with a close second at the same track last time.

He races off a career-high mark of 90 and probably isn't open to much more progress at the age of five, but is in such good form that it's hard to discount him – and he likes this course. He is a winner at the track on soft ground.

Hamaki and Knight Of Honour are two others who represent top stables and are lightly raced, and are potential improvers.

They finished first and second, with Hamaki on top by half a length, on soft ground at Haydock in June, and Knight Of Honour is 6lb better off at the weights.

A strict interpretation would give Knight Of Honour the edge, but Hamaki has probably improved since.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Jim Boyle, trainer of Bad Company
He's a tough and consistent horse and the more rain that falls, the better. He's creeping up the handicap and I suspect he'll go up again on Tuesday for his last run, so we're trying to sneak him in before that. There's been a nice bit of rain and hopefully he'll run his usual solid race, although there are some three-year-olds in opposition who could improve past him.

Jeremy Scott, trainer of Celtic Art
It would be lovely if he ran well because his late owner John Carrington, who died in the summer, was always very keen on Windsor, where he was a director. The horse is well, but he's never transferred his all-weather form to the grass. That said, when he has run on turf for us, the ground has been on the quick side. Hopefully, conditions will be softer and he could go hurdling afterwards.

Kevin Philippart de Foy, trainer of Surrey Mist
He's settled in very well since joining me and I think he'll enjoy the cut in the ground. He had some good form for his previous trainer [George Baker] and seems very straightforward. The trip, course and ground should suit him. It's competitive but he deserves his chance.
Reporting by James Burn

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