The one race you don't want to miss on Tuesday

7.20 Newcastle
Megan O'Brien 30th Birthday Handicap | 1m | 4yo+ 0-95 | SKY

Why is it interesting?

Royal Ascot is only a fortnight away and this valuable mile handicap has proved a key stepping stone towards the Royal Hunt Cup. Last season's winner What's The Story finished fourth at Ascot after this, while El Vip and Firmament went off short prices at the royal meeting but could not make the placings.

This year's line-up is intriguing with plenty of high-profile runners from the bigger yards. Lush Life scored by a neck at Sandown last time out and Jamie Osborne's improving runner looks for a fifth win in eight starts. She is a general 16-1 chance for the Hunt Cup but needs to win this to make the cut at Ascot.

Newcastle: a pointer to the Royal Hunt CupCredit: Edward Whitaker

Saeed bin Suroor runs Bedouin's Story, who shaped well on his first run since coming back from Dubai, while the Roger Varian-trained Ibraz is another who has run well in big field handicaps this season.

Algaffaal won last time while Paparazzi, Trevithick and Tough Remedy, who runs for last year's winning trainer Keith Dalgleish, are all course-and-distance winners.

What do the stats say?

In the last five seasons Jamie Spencer has a 31 per cent strike-rate when riding for Jamie Osborne with a +34.25 profit from a £1 stake. They combine with Lush Life.

Tough Remedy has form figures of 1312 at this track.

Roger Varian has saddled three winners from seven runners at Newcastle this season – with a 43 per cent strike-rate – and runs Ibraz.

What do the trainers say?

Jamie Osborne, trainer of Lush Life
The planned route was the Hunt Cup and I thought she would go up sufficiently to make the cut but after two runs she is only 3lb higher. She will need the 5lb penalty to get in so her immediate future will be decided on Tuesday. If she wins and comes out of the race well then we'll go to Ascot, if she fails then our Hunt Cup plan is completely scuppered.

Keith Dalgleish, trainer of Tough Remedy
He loves the track and is in good order at home. The form of his last run there [second to Bowerman] looks quite good so hopefully he can run similar to that.

Bryan Smart, trainer of Trevithick
Hopefully he can run a good race as he does well at Newcastle. His form at the track has been great on his last two starts so we're hoping for another big run.

James Bethell, trainer of Ulshaw Bridge
He ran a good race at York where he got a bad draw and got a bit behind. He made up a bit of ground but had used up a bit to get there. He's fine and seems in good form, he has done well through the winter and has got some nice races in him.

What do our tipsters say?

The top three on the card are southern raiders who all command respect, with IBRAZ selected to come out on top.

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