'The ground and trip are perfect and he shouldn't be far away' - trainer quotes for the 29-runner Topham

Course form has historically been an obsession for some punters in the Grand National. Yet in the modern era, with the plastic cores taking much of the risk out of the famous spruce fences, it is now the case that you should be thinking more about Aintree experience when it comes to the Topham than the National.

While there are only five races a year over the National course and therefore the caveat of small sample sizes will always apply, the stats do seem pretty clear.

Since the changes to the course a decade ago, horses with course experience in the National have a win strike-rate of 1.83 per cent (a tiny bit more than 2.5 per cent would be par) and 10.37 per cent have finished in the first four (a touch more than 10 per cent expected).

In the Topham, those with experience have a 4.60 per cent win strike-rate, against a par of 3.51 per cent, while for the first four finishers the figures are 16.09 per cent and 14.06 per cent.

Market expectations would agree with these conclusions, for what they are worth when talking about the Grand National as the race always returns a huge overround. The overall lesson would appear to be that course experience confers no advantage in Saturday's feature, but it is an advantage in the shorter race.

In truth, what these statistics might show above all is that a successful Grand National campaign prizes horses being trained to the minute and preserving their handicap mark, whereas those need not be such pressing concerns if you are aiming at the somewhat less competitive Topham.

By way of illustration: if this were the Grand National and the three favourites were the Becher winner (Ashtown Lad), Grand Sefton winner (Al Dancer) and the horse who finished second to them both (Gesskille), many would suggest they had shown a bit too much leg to the handicapper. Yet between them, they are implied to have about a 5-2 chance of winning the Topham.

They are far from alone in terms of course form. Batcio was second in the race last year, while Burrows Saint is taking the Livelovelaugh route. That horse had the time of his life for three miles in the 2019 Grand National, then came back at the other side of the pandemic to win the 2m5f Topham. Similarly, two years ago Burrows Saint plainly failed to stay when fourth in Minella Times's National.

But you cannot always take your cue from course form. In general, what is required over the National fences is a prominent racer who jumps boldly and fluently. Hangtime used to be what got horses round safely, but now it sacrifices precious momentum.

For that reason, a horse like Numitor would be an example of the type to take to the course. He is a good jumper who tries hard and he is well handicapped following a slow start to the season, which a midwinter wind operation seems to have rectified.

There is a drawback with Numitor, as he has been known to sulk a bit when unable to lead and only two of his 13 chase starts have come in double-figure fields. But then there is no perfect profile for the Topham, and certainly not if you are looking for a horse having their first run over these fences.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Bowen chasing Aintree history

Peter Bowen bids to become the outright leading trainer in Topham Chase history with the prolific Equus Dancer, who is tasked with delivering the Welshman a sixth victory in the race.

Bowen struck last year with 2021 Grand Sefton winner Mac Tottie – and also claimed fourth with this year's Grand National contender Francky Du Berlais – a decade on from course legend Always Waining's third consecutive triumph.

Equus Dancer, who has successfully mixed hurdles and fences to win five of his last six starts, has returned from a 552-day absence this season to win two of his three runs.

"He's in good form and has been running well," said Bowen. "He just does enough, so hopefully he's ahead of the handicapper."

What they say 

Willie Mullins, trainer of Haut En Couleurs, Burrows Saint, Ciel De Neige and Fan De Blues
Paul [Townend] has picked Haut En Couleurs, but he has a tough task ahead of him under top weight. He’s showing us more at home than he is on the track. Patrick [Mullins] rides Burrows Saint and they got on great in the Grand National a few years ago. This trip will suit him a lot better, he loves the track and jumping round there. I think he's got a really good each-way chance. Ciel De Neige loves jumping big fences and is another who could be each-way value. I think the ground will be crucial to Fan De Blues. If the word 'good' is in the description I’d give him a chance of making the first four, but he’ll need to leave his last run behind.

Sam Thomas, trainer of Al Dancer
I'm looking forward to him, he seems in great form. It's a much more competitive race than the one at the start of the season, but at least we know he enjoyed the fences. Fingers crossed for a big run.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Il Ridoto
Il Ridoto has been running well all season and Harry Cobden is quite excited about riding him.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Gin On Lime and Upping The Anti
Gin On Lime was unlucky to depart in the Cross Country at Cheltenham at an early stage, but she's schooled well since and could go well. Upping The Anti ran well the other day at Thurles and the winner has since gone on to land a Grade 1, so that form doesn't look so bad.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Ashtown Lad
He has won around the fences before and the rain has come for him. You can be quite aggressive with him in this type of race and I'm really looking forward to this.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Fantastic Lady
I've always thought this would be the right race for her, but she unseated at the first last year. We'll keep our fingers crossed this time.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Battleoverdoyen
We've had the Topham in mind for him for quite a while. He's got some decent form from a few years ago and he's generally a terrific jumper. The race should suit him.

Gesskille: boasts some fine National course formCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Oliver Greenall, joint-trainer of Gesskille
He loves the fences and has had a little bit of a break after his slightly below-par effort at Doncaster. It looks a slightly tougher race than the two he ran in in the autumn, but I think the ground and trip are perfect and if he gets a good run round he shouldn't be far away.

Phil Kirby, trainer of Top Ville Ben
He jumped the fences well there last time and hopefully going back in trip will suit him – he ran well over this trip at Leopardstown. He never really got into a rhythm at Cheltenham, so hopefully he'll get into more of one and go well.

Harry Fry, trainer of Phoenix Way
It's his first time over the fences but the trip looks ideal. It looks a competitive race as always, but he's been knocking on the door this season and the handicapper has relented each time.

Ted Walsh, trainer of Batcio
He's in good nick. He had a run in Clonmel and he was running all right in very heavy ground before he unseated after not running for a long time. If he can reproduce last year's run, he should run a good race.

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Kiltealy Briggs
He won a decent race at the start of the season at Market Rasen and although he's run creditably since, it hasn't quite happened for him. He's dropped down the handicap, below his previous winning mark, and he's nice and fresh. This has very much been the plan.

John McConnell, trainer of Hereditary Rule
The ground went for him at Cheltenham, and Aintree should suit him better as he enjoys a flat track. He's a very good jumper normally, so hopefully he can take to the fences. He does have a lot of ticks so hopefully he can do himself justice.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Celebre D'Allen
Like everything running in this, he's got to negotiate the fences, but he's generally been a good jumper and I hope he has an each-way chance. Ideally, he could do with softer ground but it will be safe.

Gary Moore, trainer of Dorking Lad
The distance and track is right for him, it's just whether he's good enough. He might be high enough in the weights, but I think it will suit him round there.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Fantastikas
We didn't get into the National so we're coming here. He hasn't run very well this season, but hopefully he's falling to a mark where he can come back.
Reporting by Andrew Dietz

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