The curious case of the returning 'non-stayer' in the Ascot opener

Keith Melrose focuses on the first race at Ascot on Saturday, the Foundation Developments Novices' Handicap Hurdle (12.40)

When Pemberley won over 2m3½f at Hereford last month, trainer Emma Lavelle was asked about his improved performance relative to his reappearance at Exeter. Lavelle was quoted as saying "He had stripped fitter for its first run of the season and also appreciated the drop back in trip from two miles and seven furlongs."

Why, then, will he make his next appearance following that Hereford success in Ascot's 12.40 on Saturday over 2m7½f? Is his trainer running Pemberley over the wrong trip?

The chances are that Lavelle was a bit hasty in her assessment at Hereford and correct in her judgement to send Pemberley back over further. Sectionals tell us why.

There is more to sectional timing than just finishing speed percentages. Given enough data, it is possible to arrive at furlong-by-furlong pars for any given course. This is especially useful at undulating or otherwise quirky tracks, including Hereford's largely square circuit.

The attached graph shows the emphasis was firmly on stamina in Pemberley's race. For all that they started steadily enough, eight of the last nine furlongs were run at faster than the 'par' would dictate, carrying on all the way to the finish. In essence, the pace picked up soon after halfway and they raced hard more or less all the way home.

A well-run race in soft ground makes for a real test. That Pemberley went through that race like he did, and finished so strongly, tells us he should have no problem going back up in trip. His trainer has seemingly been wise to reconsider her judgement in the immediate aftermath of his last run.

All data courtesy of Total Performance Data, whose tracking covers more than 20 courses in the UK and North America

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