The A Plus Tard conundrum: if he's back to his best, he wins! If . . .

Christmas might be a time for forgiveness, but just how charitable can you be when the one looking for absolution did something so out of character that punters leaving Haydock requested a DNA test to determine who actually turned up for the Betfair Chase?

It was A Plus Tard's predictability that made him so precious. He turned up at the races and either won or was placed. That is all we had ever known. You could set your watch by him. Nineteen runs, eight wins, eight seconds and three thirds was his record heading to Haydock; a cocktail of consistency and class.

Then came the Betfair: the day one of the best jumpers in the business jumped terribly; the day when one of the strongest travellers in the business travelled poorly; the day when all we thought we knew about A Plus Tard was thrown out the window. So what happens now? Do you back, lay or not play at all?