'She's well handicapped on her homework' - sprinter out to end trainer's drought

2.45 Chester
tote+ At tote.co.uk Handicap | 5f | 3yo | ITV4/Sky

Plenty is made of the draw at Chester – and rightly so. You don't want to be covering more ground on the tight-turning track. However, the significant bias can also be stretched to race position, especially over the minimum trip.

Since 2016, front-runners on the Roodee over 5f have a 31 per cent strike-rate (25-80, 66.4 per cent runners beaten). That shows a clear advantage to be on the lead which is enhanced by rough statistics for those in behind.

Prominent racers have just a 13 per cent strike-rate (32-251, 55 per cent RB), while hold-up performers boast a miserable six per cent strike-rate (19-332, 40 per cent RB).

With that in mind, pinpointing the early speed is crucial in this three-year-old handicap and the horse most likely to dictate the fractions is the Tom Dascombe-trained Harmony Lil, although stall five tempers enthusiasm that she can get across to the rail.

The two-time-winning daughter of Kodi Bear is unbeaten in two starts at Chester and pressed for the lead on both occasions from wide draws before grinding it out late to record narrow successes. Similar tactics may be in the offing here.

Those drawn inside her include stablemate Cuban Breeze and likely favourite Showalong, both of whom possess eyecatching acceleration though may lack the sharpness breaking from the gates of Harmony Lil. If either gain the rail advantage, they would instantly hit favouritism in the in-running markets.

Franny Norton, who was leading rider at the track in 2017, may also look to cheat the draw on Army Of India, who is pitched wider than ideal in stall six and is yet to score on turf. It would take a big career-best to get off the mark in these circumstances.

That leaves the Andrew Balding-trained Imperial Force. The visored son of Camacho has looked awkward in two starts this season and is not sure to handle the idiosyncratic track, but he possesses the best piece of form to his name courtesy of a third-placed finish in last year's Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. He could be the one to pick up the pieces if there is a pace collapse.
Race analysis by Tom Collins

Imperial Force (right): may profit if those in front go too fastCredit: David Davies (Pool / Getty Images)

Maggie looks to give Coyle first win since August

Tony Coyle is hoping he can end a 252-day wait for a winner with Ey Up It's Maggie showing him plenty of encouraging signs as she starts her three-year-old campaign.

Her success in a Catterick maiden in August was Coyle's last winner and that day she beat the now 81-rated Blind Beggar. A further hint, perhaps, that she may prove better than her official mark of 77.

After Catterick, she was tested at a decent level in two subsequent runs, performing well, and she has conditions in her favour for her handicap bow here.

With cheekpieces settling down the animated daughter of Equiano, the signs all appear to be promising with a bold run expected on her reappearance.

"She's as fit as we can get her at home," Coyle said. "She'll love the ground and that's a big plus for her. We've been ready to run for a little while, but we've been waiting for a bit of rain. She's badly drawn and that's probably the only thing.

"This will tell us a lot, she won over five [furlongs] at Catterick but she might want six. We know she'll stay the five really well. She's lairy at home so that's why we put the cheekpieces on her, but she has worked well in them.

"She should run well, we've done plenty with her. I have to say, she's well handicapped off 77 on her homework."

Ey Up It's Maggie (right) wins at Catterick in August for Tony Coyle, who has been on a barren run sinceCredit: Pool

What they say

Declan Carroll, trainer of First Company
We've been waiting for a bit of rain. He'll run well, it's his first start of the season so he'll come on for it, but he's in good nick. His last two races were at Listed and Group 3 level so he's a nice horse, but he's got a lot of weight to carry. We're looking forward to running him.

William Easterby, assistant to Tim, trainer of Showalong
He's in really good form and we think he's got a nice chance. He doesn't mind cut in the ground at all, in fact he likes it. He's got plenty of speed which means he can stay handy. If he handles the track he should run well.

Tom Dascombe, trainer of Harmony Lil and Cuban Breeze
Cuban Breeze ran no race at all last time out at Ripon whereas the other ran as good as she ever has. They both go there with good chances. Cuban Breeze is a course-and-distance winner and Harmony Lil has won there twice before so we know they handle it. They're well drawn and hopefully they can run really decent races.
Reporting by James Stevens

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