Progressive chaser's Boxing Day win could be key to Wincanton feature

4.45 Wincanton
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The majority of the eight runners in this field are on a recovery mission to some extent. Quite By Chance and Aubusson are essentially regressing, albeit the latter in particular is doing so gradually and was a winner off this mark 11 months ago. He will need to come on from a poor run on his return from five months off in January.

Both Broadclyst and Waikiki Waves were interesting horses earlier in the season. Broadclyst pushed Worthy Farm to a neck over this course and distance on Boxing Day, while Waikiki Waves won five out of six prior to a couple of subdued efforts at Sandown and Kempton since having a break. Neither run has been quite as bad as the result implies, admittedly, but he also comes here unproven over anything like this extended 3m1f trip.

The aforementioned Worthy Farm race could provide the key to this contest. Broadclyst was second, but as alluded to has since run a couple of pretty desperate races, while back in third was Air Navigator, who travelled well into the race from off the pace but did not find a great deal and has since put in a bad round of jumping at Chepstow. Wincanton's fences are no easier.

Worthy Farm: form of his Wincanton victory holds the key to this raceCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Fourth was Le Boizelo. He might be the closest thing to a reliable sort in this race. The time before he had won an amateur riders' race at Sandown thanks at least in part to his jockey Tommie O'Brien. Since Boxing Day he has put up a respectable showing at Newbury in a race that would be much stronger than this. It is clear that he remains in form.

There does seem a reasonable likelihood of a contested pace which could work against Spider's Bite, who would be one of those projected to go forward. It might suit Barbrook Star, if he can keep up, as he has been shaping as though in need of a test and is broadly excused a poor run last time.
Keith Melrose

What do the stats say

Bryan Carver has ridden three winners from his last six rides. He partners the Chris Down-trained Broadclyst.

Aubusson ran off a chase mark of 149 at his peak in November 2016. Quite By Chance reached his career-high mark of 147 the following month. They run off 127 and 119 respectively here.

Tom George has been operating at a 29 per cent strike-rate, with four winners from 14 runners over the last two weeks. He saddles Air Navigator.

What do the trainers say

Robert Walford, trainer of Le Boizelo
He's in good form but is probably not very well handicapped. He won't mind the going and we're heading here instead of Sandown due to the inspection.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Barbrook Star
There's a concern about the soft ground, but if he manages it then he should have a good each-way chance.

Gary Moore, trainer of Waikiki Waves
He's in good order. I feel he's been saving a bit for himself. He's been a bit hesitant with his jumping, so we've put some blinkers to get some more improvement.

Tom George, trainer of Air Navigator
He's in good form and ran well at the track over Christmas. The ground shouldn't be a problem.

Joe Tizzard, assistant to Colin Tizzard, trainer of Quite By Chance
He's very well and his first run back at Taunton last month was promising. He loves Wincanton and he handled the ground well last time, so it shouldn't be a problem here.
Kitty Trice

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