Progress v experience: which way should punters go in feature chase?

Friday: 4.05 Kempton
Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Chase | 3m | 5yo+ | RTV

Sometimes races have a confused look to them and this one comes into that category.

There is no rhyme or reason to the type of horse that wins it. Since 2013, four horses who could be categorised as exposed have been successful, but it has also gone to two improvers.

All of the winners in that time have been younger than ten, yet a third of this field breach that threshold and they would be in the exposed group, which has done so well in recent seasons.

Two of the last four winners were young improvers and two were aged seven, yet only one horse in this line-up is younger than eight and that is the Dan Skelton-trained Flegmatik.

However, he couldn't be included in the 'improver' bracket because he was on his way up at this time last year and lost his form this season. He even needed a wind op in November.

You can see the conundrum. One statistic is pulling you in one direction and one the other.

Maybe the improver will end up being Colonial Dreams. He has run only twice over fences and was a good second on his debut in a novice handicap chase at Newbury in December.

He was pulled up at Lingfield last time on heavy ground, but these quicker conditions will suit him and Nicky Henderson's last winner of this race, Prince Of Pirates in 2013, bounced back from a poor run to score here. There is every chance Colonial Dreams can do the same.

Chris Gordon and Nigel Twiston-Davies are the other trainers who have won it in recent years. Mellow Ben goes for Gordon, who landed it in 2015 with Ballyheigue Bay, while Twiston-Davies was successful four years ago with Bigbadjohn and runs The Hollow Ginge.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Tom George, trainer of Double Shuffle
He's in good form. He loves the ground, but it was a bit soft for him here when he finished fifth last time. We're looking forward to running him back at his favourite track.

Double Shuffle: conditions are in his favourCredit: Mark Cranham

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of The Hollow Ginge
He was a bit disappointing in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time. We're beginning to question whether he stays that far so we decided to drop him back to three miles this time. The ground should suit.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Flegmatik
He performs well on right-handed tracks and ran well when third in a strong race over Christmas. I'd hope he goes close based on that form.

Chris Gordon, trainer of Mellow Ben
He's been off since finishing sixth here in November and will have benefited from a bit of a break. He's possibly going to need the run and hopefully we'll see some progress. The conditions will suit him.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

Watch In The Know every Monday until the Cheltenham Festival from 6pm, live on the Racing Post YouTube channel. Ross Brierley hosts as Racing Post experts and special guests look ahead to the festival. Subscribe to the Racing Post YouTube channel here so you don't miss out.