More to come from Progressive but don't be surprised if she's overbet

Sky Bet Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) 2m½f | 4yo fillies | Sky

Nicky Henderson has gained a reputation for having success in novice hurdles for fillies and mares, but that appears to be preceding his runners in such races and they are being overbet.

The statistics are good in terms of winners. Henderson has saddled 50 winners from 160 female runners in non-handicap novice hurdles in Britain since the start of 2016. That’s a 31 per cent strike-rate, but backing them blindly would have proved quite costly. A £1 bet on all of those runners yielded a loss of £26.70 and it’s evident the market is all over the angle.

Henderson saddles Progressive and she is another who attracted a fair weight of support when justifying 5-4 favouritism on her debut over course and distance last month. She is again likely to head the market here but with little justification judged purely on that effort.

Nicky Henderson: 'This race has been in the diary for a month'Credit: Edward Whitaker

She recorded a Racing Post Rating of 104 that day and that gives her 15lb to find with Talking About You, even when you take into consideration the 5lb penalty she carries here.

Her Indoors (best RPR of 116) and Megan (114) also have in excess of 10lb in hand of Progressive judged on hurdles form and Progressive will need to improve to follow up.

There is some hope on that score, though. Progressive had a career-high RPR of 83 on the Flat and she ran only four times on the level. She is evidently still unexposed and could have plenty more in the locker on just her sixth start overall and her second outing over hurdles.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Alan King, trainer of Her Indoors
She finished second in this grade at Aintree last month and she'll do better here than last time at Kempton, where she stayed on after getting a little outpaced and she also tended to drift to the left. She has shown at home that she's improved since then and she'll be suited by this stiffer, left-handed track.

Stuart Edmunds, trainer of Megan
It was a bit of a funny race at Aintree last time when they hardly jumped any hurdles because of the low sun, but we're happy with her and I think the ground will be fine. She's obviously got Talking About You and Her Indoors, who beat her at Aintree, to take on, but I'm hoping having all the hurdles to jump will help her.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Progressive
She didn't surprise me when she won at the track last time and I like her a lot. She's been in very good form since, but it all hinges on the ground and that will apply to every horse who runs in the next week. She's come off the Flat, so I doubt she's seen ground as testing as this, so we don't know. As this is a Listed, fillies-only, juvenile race it has – not surprisingly – been in the diary for a month.
Reporting by James Burn

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