Keith Melrose's expert analysis for an open-looking Grade 2 mares' novice hurdle

Thursday: 2.20 Sandown
Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Jane Seymour Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) | 2m4f | 4yo+ | RTV

Races for mares are naturally more prone to flux, as there is less than half the pool of horses to sustain them, and the Jane Seymour has already shown that in its seven runnings. Winning RPRs range from a high of 144, recorded by Colin's Sister in beating Happy Diva in 2017, to 128 for Anythingforlove last year.

At the lower end (other winning RPRs include 132, 133, 134 and 135), it is a stretch to call the race anything more than a nominal Grade 2. Barring above-average improvement, this running may match a similar description.

Love Envoi is unbeaten, but she has been well campaigned and that is part of the reason her form reads 1111. She was asked up for a valuable race at Lingfield's winter festival last time and was able to land that prize while retaining a handicap mark under 130. She has already won twice on heavy, and the ground at Sandown was soft on Wednesday with a little more rain forecast.

Despite the race's timing, only one winner (Queenohearts) has gone to the Dawn Run at Cheltenham next. That is reportedly the plan for Nina The Terrier, whose trainer Alan King is a noted black type-hunter, particularly with mares. She has already run twice in Listed company, finishing second at Haydock on Tommy Whittle day behind Haute Estime and the weights have turned 5lb in her favour now following a close finish in that race.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose, betting editor

What they say

Harry Fry, trainer of Love Envoi
She's done more on the track than what we might have expected from what she shows at home, but I don't mind being wrong in these instances. I'm pleased to see the unsettled weather as she thrives in slow ground and it looks like we'll get that. This has been in mind after her win at Warwick in December, but Lingfield at the end of January was a bonus.

Alan King, trainer of Nina The Terrier
I'd been thinking of sending her straight to the festival but she's so fresh she could do with a race. This still gives me time to get her ready and it's also a very good prize. She's a progressive mare who was unlucky not to win last time and she schooled well on Monday.

Noel Williams, trainer of Speech Bubble
This is the sort of race that should suit her and the ground is right up her street, while she has course form from being second in a Listed bumper last season. She's bang there on ratings and the top ones look closely matched and I'm looking forward to testing her. It looks like she's up to it and her bumper form told us she was above average, while I think she won with a bit up her sleeve at Newbury last time.
Reporting by James Burn

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