Is Waterville a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper? We'll soon find out

Sunday: 4.15 Curragh
Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch | 2m½f | 3yo+ | RTV

A maximum field of 30 over two miles on rain-softened ground at the Curragh should really mean you have as much chance of winning the lotto in your local football club. But the presence of Waterville means it could be far more straightforward than the huge field suggests.

Waterville could easily be a Group 1 stayer in time. The problem is that we don't know that yet and he is priced up on potential rather than anything he has achieved so far. The best days are most likely ahead of him, but he is priced on the premise that his best days are definitely ahead of him.

The three-year-old son of Camelot is a half-brother to the superb Sea Of Class and sneaks in here at the very bottom of the weights. When you look at the prices he has been sent off in his five races to date, you get the impression that they think quite a bit of him at Ballydoyle.

Waterville was 8-11 to make a winning debut in a Curragh maiden back in April, but got no luck in running and finished third. He was 4-5 next time at Leopardstown when second, 10-11 back at the Curragh next time when third, and he was only evens when getting off the mark at Limerick in June. That was a 2m1f handicap where he made a mockery of his opening handicap mark of 84.

Upped in class last time at Leopardstown, he traded at 1.29 in-running on Betfair but could not get by the tenacious Point King. There was no shame in that loss and it is very interesting he hasn't been seen since.

Perhaps Aidan O'Brien identified the €600,000 Irish Cesarewitch as an ideal target for Waterville and kept his handicap mark for it. He's fresh, stays well and could have quite a bit up his sleeve.

Willie Mullins is always to be feared in these big staying handicaps on the Flat. He won the Irish Cesarewitch in 2015, 2016 and most recently in 2019 with Royal Illusion.

Ireland's champion jumps trainer could have as many as six runners if the reserve Scaramanga gets in, and Echoes In Rain would appear to be his number-one hope. She provided Patrick Mullins with a belated first victory in the big Connacht Hotel Handicap for amateur riders at Galway in July and did so in pretty impressive fashion. She is 10lb for that, but is a Grade 1-winning hurdler who is rated 150 in that sphere so there could easily be more to come from her. Rachael Blackmore has been booked to ride.

Echoes In Rain: won at Galway for Patrick Mullins and will have the assistance of Rachael Blackmore this timeCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Of those at bigger prices, HMS Seahorse catches the eye. If Waterville is a stakes stayer in the making, it won't be easy for him as he certainly doesn't have 10lb up his sleeve given he is 19lb higher for a course win earlier in the summer, but the ex-Ballydoyle inmate was an emphatic winner there and you can safely put a line through his latest odds-on defeat in a novice hurdle at Galway as it turned into a sprint. He needs a stiffer test of stamina and will get that here.

HMS Seahorse might be the value option, but Waterville is the most likely winner. He could be a cut above handicap company and has got bottom weight. It is easy to understand why he is so short in the market.

Twomey has eyes on the big prize with Irish Derby third Franch Claim

Paddy Twomey's stunning season is showing no sign of slowing down. He is somehow still operating at a 31 per cent strike-rate in Ireland with 30 winners from 97 runners, and La Petite Coco and Pearls Galore have already provided him with two Group 1s this season. Now he has his eyes on Ireland's richest handicap on the Flat with a pair of fascinating contenders.

French Claim was third in the Irish Derby behind Westover and was only beaten five lengths in the St Leger. This is his first handicap, while Earl Of Tyrone was third in the Ebor and will relish the step up to two miles. Both have big chances and Twomey knows it.

The trainer said: "I think the race will suit Earl Of Tyrone. I like Danny [King] as a rider and he's good value for his claim. He rides well. This has been the plan for French Claim. He has some decent form and this is his first time in a handicap. I can see him running a big race."

Paddy Twomey: trainer is having a remarkable seasonCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

What they say

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Wordsworth and Waterville
Waterville seems to be in very good form. We think this is the sort of race that will suit him and we're looking forward to seeing how he gets on. Wordsworth has been working nicely at home of late and he's a smart stayer on his day.

Dermot Weld, trainer of Falcon Eight and Azallya
Falcon Eight has been a wonderfully consistent performer for me over the years. He's won a Chester Cup and run some big races in very good company. This is obviously a very competitive running of the race, but I think he can represent us well. He seems to be in very good form. Azallya returned at Galway and it was lovely to see her placed in the Oyster Stakes. I think she can be competitive in a very competitive race.

Paul Nolan, trainer of HMS Seahorse
He got a 19lb hike for winning a handicap at the Curragh back in June. To say that I still think he's well handicapped would be a tall story! He's come out of Ballydoyle and you wouldn't imagine you have much up your sleeve coming out of there. But look, the horse is in great form at home. The hurdle race he ran in at Galway was a bit messy and it didn't suit him. He needs further than two miles over hurdles.

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