Is there any value backing short-priced favourite Faisal for team Gosden?

Fitzdares Says Farewell To Barney Curley Handicap (Class 3) | 1m2f | 4yo+ | Sky

John and Thady Gosden got their new partnership off to a flyer in a big handicap when landing the Lincoln with Haqeeqy at Doncaster in March, and the father-and-son team have had nine winners from 53 runners in handicaps since the start of March – a strike-rate of 17 per cent.

However, there has been no value in backing their handicap runners in that time. A £1 bet on all 53 representatives would have yielded a loss of £16 at starting price and an actual/expected (A/E) winners figure of just 0.76 is a further indication they are overbet.

It is therefore no surprise that Faisal, their representative in this handicap, was put in at a short price in the early markets following two impressive all-weather victories last season.

Faisal already has a BHA rating of 95 and will probably make it to Listed level, at the very least, in time. He is a Golden Horn half-brother to Gentleman Joe, who finished third in the Cocked Hat at Goodwood, and Faisal is bidding to make up for lost time at the age of four.

Henry Candy hit the target with La Lune in the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock on Saturday and five of his 12 runners in the last fortnight finished in the first three. The yard is hitting form.

Alfred Boucher, Candy’s representative here, finished third on his seasonal reappearance in the City and Suburban at Epsom last month when he did the best of those to come from off the pace and was behind two race-fit rivals. He will improve for the run and is a big danger.

The final word goes to Wait Forever, who is ridden by Richard Kingscote. He has one winner from five rides for Marco Botti, but two others finished second and his booking is a positive.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Thady Gosden, co-trainer of Faisal
He won his first two starts last year and has a rating of 95, which means he's got top weight, but he should handle the ground as it dries out. He's won over the trip, so that should also suit.

Marco Botti, trainer of Wait Forever
He ran well at Doncaster last time and a mile and a quarter is his trip. Faisal is very unexposed and who knows how much he’s got in hand, but our guy is in there with a chance and we’ve put the cheekpieces on as last time, when he was second, he was sort of hiding a little bit, so we’re trying to give him some help and focus.

David Menuisier, trainer of Luigi Vampa
He didn’t stay last time after doing too much at the front so I’ve decided to drop back in trip.

James Moon, trainer of Wolf Hunter
We can’t get to France from Jersey at the moment, but we’re now in line with BHA drug testing so can come and race again in Britain – and we’re coming to win. He likes to run on a road, so the drier the better, although he was second to a Jean-Claude Rouget-trained horse owned by the Coolmore partners [Visage] at Craon, and that was very soft. He’s quite versatile and was giving her weight that day, so he should do well on that form.
Reporting by James Burn

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