Is Stradivarius as good as he was? Graeme Rodway with the definitive verdict

Friday: 2.25 YorkWeatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) | 2m½f | 3yo+ | ITV/RTV

In terms of the staying division, this is a campaign that promised plenty. The emergence of Trueshan, Subjectivist and Spanish Mission as genuine challengers to Stradivarius set up the enticing prospect of a vintage season, but it hasn't worked out that way.

We were robbed of what might have been a Gold Cup classic after Stradivarius found every bit of trouble on the home bend behind Subjectivist and Spanish Mission at Ascot, and Subjectivist's injury has denied us what would have been a fascinating rematch.

Nevertheless, we were set for a fantastic race between Stradivarius and Trueshan in the Goodwood Cup last month only to again be denied when John and Thady Gosden pulled Stradivarius out at the eleventh hour due to the testing ground.

The wisdom of that decision has been questioned and I'm among those who thought it made little sense. After all, Stradivarius produced the best performance of his life on soft ground when leaving the Gold Cup field ten lengths behind him at Ascot last year.

Furthermore, Stradivarius has recorded Racing Post Ratings higher than 120 five times and on all five occasions the ground was described as good or softer – firm didn't feature in any.

A dry forecast means firm will probably appear in the description this time, so it will be interesting to see if the Gosdens have their decision vindicated with a win here. Maybe the bigger question is whether, at the age of seven, Stradivarius is as good as he was.

His RPRs are in decline, but maybe they are deceiving. Stradivarius's great strength is his finishing kick and, if you ignore his last run in the Gold Cup when he wasn't seen to best effect and judge him on his previous Sagaro win at Ascot, then his turn of foot is still intact as he ran sectionals below 12 seconds in the final three furlongs.

Not many stayers have been capable of that at Ascot, where the final three furlongs involve a stiffer climb than at the predominantly flat York, and Stradivarius's turn of foot has proved more potent at this track. He is 4-4 here and just 6-10 at Ascot, so this is his backyard.

Maybe this will be the day when we do get the clash of the stars that we have been promised all season. Goodwood Cup winner Trueshan and Yorkshire Cup winner Spanish Mission are declared and there is no doubting their progress. Both appear on a steep upward curve.

Trueshan (best RPR 121) looks a bigger danger than Spanish Mission (118) and, while connections seem convinced he is best suited by ease in the ground, he is adept on good going and ran to his best under a big weight on the all-weather in the Northumberland Plate.

Let’s just hope it doesn’t get too quick for Trueshan or we could be robbed of another classic.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Super Strad ready for potential heavyweight clash

Stradivarius bids to better the likes of Persian Punch, Celeric and Further Flight by winning this Group 2 for a record third time and his task may become easier with Trueshan's participation in doubt.

The Bjorn Nielsen-owned homebred is 4-4 on the Knavesmire, having won the Yorkshire Cup and Lonsdale Cup in 2018 and 2019, but was well beaten by Trueshan on their sole previous clash in last year’s Long Distance Cup on end-of-season soft ground at Ascot.

While soft ground forced Stradivarius's withdrawal ahead of his bid for a fifth Goodwood Cup last month, York has been the one track where he has benefited from his perceived ideal conditions. His four course wins have come on good to firm ground and Friday's going description may not be too dissimilar.

John Gosden, joint-trainer with his son Thady, said: "Obviously it was very frustrating not to be able to run him in the Goodwood Cup, which is at a track he absolutely loves. We weren't able to do it, however, after they had 60mm of rain in the 24 hours beforehand.

"Stradivarius has been happy and seems to still have all of his enthusiasm, but obviously we're aware he's a year older."

Trueshan: won the Goodwood Cup last timeCredit: Edward Whitaker

The Newmarket joint-trainers are hoping for the pleasant weather at York to continue but Alan King would rather like some rain to fall.

A going description of good would be suitable for Trueshan, the mount of Hollie Doyle, to take his chance after his first top-level success at Goodwood.

King said on Thursday: "We've sent him up today but if it stays dry and goes to good to firm he won't run. He has very good form on good ground so we would run him on that, but we'll have to see what the jockeys say today and how the weather fares overnight. I'll be up there at lunchtime tomorrow to walk the course if necessary.

"We didn't want to take him out early and regret it if the ground is suitable. He's in great form and would have to have a very good chance if lining up."

Melbourne beckons for Spanish Mission after this but May's Yorkshire Cup scorer is another firmly in the mix after finishing third in the Gold Cup last time. This select field may well provide a cracker.

What they say

Barry Irwin, founder of Team Valor, joint-owners of Spanish Mission
We're hoping for a good show. The trip just stretched him a little in the Gold Cup – two miles is his limit, but he's good over that trip. This is his last race in England for the year, he'll be going into quarantine after York for a crack at the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup, which we've always thought would suit him.

Willie Mullins, trainer of Stratum
Stratum ran well to finish second in this race last year and I'm hoping he can repeat that effort. I think you can discount his run over hurdles at Galway last time.
Reporting by Jack Haynes

Friday's race previews:

1.50 York: can the Classic generation strike a blow in handicap dominated by older horses?

3.00 York: 'The target since he was bought' – insight and trainer quotes for the Gimcrack

3.35 York: 'If he loses it's my fault' – Ward bullish Golden Pal can blaze in Nunthorpe

3.35 York: no Battaash now but punters can still look forward to an exciting Nunthorpe (Members' Club)

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