How good were last season's juveniles? The Greatwood could give us the answer

Sunday: 2.55 CheltenhamUnibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) | 2m½f | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

One of the old maxims in jumps racing is that it's tough going for horses coming out of their juvenile year and most statistics back that up. Horses who were three last year and four-year-olds in the spring often struggle to come back and land top hurdle honours at five.

You only have to look at the Champion Hurdle. Katchit was successful in 2008 and Espoir D'Allen in 2019, but that victory broke a run of 28 straight losers of that age in between.

Furthermore, if you look at four-year-olds in handicap hurdles in the months of November and December since the start of 2017, they are striking at just seven per cent. That compares to 12 per cent for five-year-olds and ten per cent for six-year-olds in that same period.

However, this year four-year-olds are enjoying more success, albeit from a small sample, and if you had backed all horses in British handicap hurdles of that age since the start of October you would have found 13 winners from 125 runners (ten per cent), for a level-stake profit £18.80.

Tritonic was reported to have been a sick horse after disappointing in last season's Triumph HurdleCredit: Edward Whitaker

It might be dangerous to assume last season's juvenile crop was better than average judged on those statistics alone, but they are all we have to go on and in Tritonic and Adagio we have the two best juveniles in Britain last season, with the exception of Aintree winner Monmiral.

Adagio got the better of the battle when beating Tritonic by 11 and three-quarter lengths when the pair finished second and fifth in the Triumph Hurdle on the New course here at the festival and Tritonic has a 5lb pull in the weights. The likely stronger pace here may also suit him better.

Four-year-olds have also won three of the last ten runnings of this race and only five-year-olds have won more. No Ordinary Joe looks the best runner of that age.

The worry is that Nicky Henderson has never won the Greatwood and the Seven Barrows trainer does not have a great record at this meeting by his own exalted standards. Since the start of 2017, he is just 4-35 (11 per cent) at Cheltenham’s November meeting for a loss of £16.88.

Dan Skelton, who won this in 2016 with North Hill Harvey, brings West Cork back after 631 days off the track and is 4-27 with runners returning from at least 600 days off since the start of 2017 but 12 of those finished in the first three and West Cork will be primed for the return.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Lacey - 'wind surgery has turned around Glory And Fortune'

Glory And Fortune arrives at Cheltenham off the back of two career-best performances, with a comfortable comeback success at Plumpton followed up with a similarly authoritative performance in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las.

Tom Lacey: 'You don't go into a Greatwood expecting to win it, but I think it's the right race for him'Credit: Alan Crowhurst

Trainer Tom Lacey believes the improving six-year-old has been allowed to fulfil his early promise after a second wind operation last spring.

Lacey said: "He won the Listed bumper at Cheltenham as a four-year-old and then he was just mentally fragile when we sent him over hurdles. He's going through his races so much better. Even his last race last season at Ludlow, he overraced. But dropping him in has helped him and then he had the entrapment.

"The wind surgery has filled him back up with confidence. He believes in himself again and has the confidence to run to the line. You don't go into a Greatwood expecting to win it, but I think it's the right race for him."

What they say

David Pipe, trainer of Adagio
He's done well over the summer but the wind op put us a little bit behind schedule and it's been a slight rush to get him ready. It's going to be tough with top weight but he's in great form at home. It can be difficult for four-year-olds in their second season but he's in good form and he likes Cheltenham.

Alan King, trainer of Tritonic
He's come on plenty for his comeback at Cheltenham last month. I’d left plenty to work on that day, and he ought to be better suited by the way this race is likely to be run than he was last time.

Camprond: Cheltenham winner reported to be in good formCredit: Steve Davies

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Camprond
He seems in very good form after his win at Cheltenham. You could argue he's maybe a bit better over a bit further but this is likely to be run at a very fast pace which will help.

Tony Martin, trainer of Tudor City
He goes there on the back of a win on the Flat. The quicker the going, the better his chance.

Denis Hogan, trainer of Bua Boy
Both of his runs this summer have been very good, he's just been unfortunate to bump into a couple of good ones. I think he'll run a big race

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Marie's Rock and NoOrdinary Joe
Marie's Rock was disappointing last season but she came forward at Wetherby the other day. No Ordinary Joe seems to be in good form. He's a novice and he's going the right way but this is a different ballgame.

Dan Skelton, trainer of West Cork
He's been off a long time but his old form and his handicap mark do look acceptable. I've done loads of work with him, so he won't be needing the run, it's just a case of race sharpness.

Advanced Virgo and Kevin Brouder in winning action at Fairyhouse last NovemberCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Charles Byrnes, trainer of Advanced Virgo
He looks to have a squeak. It looks as though there isn't anything too far out of the ordinary and when he starts passing horses he enjoys himself. We have a top man on board [in Daryl Jacob].

Jane Williams, trainer of Galice Macalo
She's got every right to be there. It was a blanket finish last time at Chepstow and she could have been first, second, third or fourth. She blew up slightly and ours normally need their first run.

Reporting by Scott Burton

Read Sunday's previews:

12.30 Punchestown: Vanillier and Sixshooter take aim at quality Florida Pearl Chase

1.10 Cheltenham: Can exciting Does He Know make it three in a row over fences?

1.45 Cheltenham: James Ewart bidding for first Cheltenham winner with fancied Empire De Maulde

2.05 Punchestown: Honeysuckle's biggest threat? Echoes In Rain out to show talent in the Morgiana

2.20 Cheltenham: Keith Melrose on why the Champion Chase heroine faces a stiff task in the Shloer

3.30 Cheltenham: Will I Like To Move It star in the Supreme Trial? Here's what his form tells us

New Sky Bet customers can get £50 in free horseracing bets when they place a £10 bet. First single & e/w bet only. Odds of 1/1 or greater. 5 x £10 bet token. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets for horseracing only. Free bets are non-withdrawable. No free bet expiry. Eligibility restrictions and further T&Cs apply. 18+. begambleaware.org. To claim the offer click here.