'He's got a big chance' - which last-time-out winner can enhance their record?

Tuesday: 3.15 Hereford
Black Mountain Botanicals Handicap Chase | 2m5f | 4yo+ | Sky

The early market favours the three last-time-out winners in a strong race for the grade and they are probably the horses to focus on here against a group of generally more exposed types who lack a run.

Highstakesplayer, Ridgeway and Sheldon each hacked up on their previous start and appeal as proper decent-ground horses who produced emphatic performances on Racing Post Ratings recently.

Highstakesplayer ran to an RPR of 132 when scoring off an official rating of 114, Ridgeway recorded a 124 when bolting up off 108, and Sheldon registered a 128 when a decisive 14-length winner off 109.

Considering Ridgeway and Sheldon each had the benefit of a warm-up run prior to their impressive successes, perhaps Highstakesplayer might be the answer here. Ridgeway improved 25lb on RPRs from his seasonal return and Sheldon progressed 19lb from his.

Tom Lacey's recent course-and-distance winner began life in handicaps off 102 but has stepped forward dramatically in four starts since, winning three of those. Despite the improvements, the six-year-old is still quite unexposed with just eight runs over jumps and looks well treated under a 7lb penalty.

One who could perhaps enter the shake-up at a bigger price is Gemirande. Trainer Venetia Williams is operating at a 29 per cent strike-rate in handicap chases at Hereford and this six-year-old is capable of running well off 116 if fit enough, with his best performances coming on similar ground conditions.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

What they say

Tom Lacey, trainer of Highstakesplayer
He's come out of his course-and-distance win well and he's in good nick. It's by no means a penalty kick. The horse of Dan Skelton's [Ridgeway] looked impressive last time out and Seamus Mullins' horse [Sheldon] also has a bit of form, so those two are in contention for the race in my opinion.

Richard Bandey, trainer of Ecume Atlantique
It's his first run of the season and I was pleased with his win at Wetherby last term after a few issues we had. I thought the track didn't suit him at Bangor last time and it was a step back. We've been waiting for the right opportunity and I think the ground will be perfect.

Seamus Mullins, trainer of Sheldon
He put in a very pleasing first effort over fences at Stratford and came out of the race well. Conditions should suit him, as long as it doesn't get too wet, but he doesn't have many ground issues. We wouldn't want a slog in the mud, but he's fit and well.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Ridgeway
He's got a big chance and won last time out. We've given him a bit of time after he went up 8lb. We didn't want to run him under a 7lb penalty as we thought we'd have him a bit better. We're really happy with him, he looks fantastic and the track should suit.
Reporting by Liam Headd

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