'He's better now' - Dan Skelton issues warning to Third Time Lucki's rivals

Saturday: 1.50 Sandown
Close Brothers Henry VIII Novices' Chase (Grade 1) | 1m7½f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Third Time Lucki, currently the leading British-trained hope for the Arkle at Cheltenham in March, puts his unbeaten chasing record on the line in what looks a red-hot running of this prestigious Grade 1.

His two Cheltenham wins this season have showcased his jumping ability, pace and class, and there is the fascinating possibility of him showing further improvement if connections decide to let him bowl along in front.

Third Time Lucki has a tendency to take a keen hold under restraint, and he could prove a wonderful sight down Sandown's famous back-straight if Harry Skelton allows him to really attack his fences from the front.

Stolen Silver is the only other runner who has set the pace in the past, so the option to try to make all with Third Time Lucki must be tempting.

On official ratings Third Time Lucki has 3lb and upwards in hand of his rivals and he looks to hold a favourite’s chance in a cracking affair.

The age profile of Henry VIII winners may be of interest to some. Only two have been older than five since 2005, and four winners since its inception in 1987 have been four-year-olds.

All the runners this year bar the four-year-old Il Ridoto, who is trained by Paul Nicholls, are aged six or seven.

Nicholls has won this on seven occasions, including with the four-year-old Marodima in 2007.

Il Ridoto made a mockery of his opening mark of 131 when romping home in a Newbury handicap chase last Saturday.

The handicapper has upped his rating by 12lb, and it's not difficult to see why he has been backed at bigger odds than his current 7-1 this week.

Edwardstone, a close fifth in the County Hurdle off 148 in March, was by no means fully extended to slam the Dan Skelton-trained four-year-old Stepney Causeway by seven lengths at Warwick.

Skelton, who trains Third Time Lucki, should have a good idea where he stands with Edwardstone via that Warwick formline.

War Lord and Minella Drama were separated by a short head when first and second in a Carlisle graduation chase last month.

The former kicked four lengths clear of Minella Drama after the final fence, and probably idled in front.

They reoppose on the same terms, and it would be no surprise if War Lord extended his superiority this time at a circuit that might suit him better.

Skelton bullish about Third Time Lucki

Third Time Lucki looks a worthy favourite, but when Dan Skelton's mentor Paul Nicholls describes this as "a really good, competitive race", it's clear that there is no margin for error.

Nonetheless, Skelton seems as upbeat as you could expect before a Grade 1, and believes his star novice is better now than when he won at Cheltenham last time.

"Third Time Lucki probably underperformed visually last time compared to his first run over fences because I don't think he was as fit the second time, and Harry [Skelton] eased him as well," he said.

"The time of the race was still favourable, so I'm not worried. He's better now than he was that day and sets the standard for the others to aim at. It's his hardest race, but he deserves to be favourite and, with the form he's in at home, he'll take all the beating.

"I'm not going there thinking he's a certainty, but he's as well as I can have him."

What they say

Alan King, trainer of Edwardstone
He jumped super at Warwick and was very professional. That will have done his confidence the world of good. He now tackles Graded company, but there aren't too many options at present, and I want to stay at two miles for now. He has worked and schooled well since, and I'm very happy with him.

Sam Thomas, trainer of Stolen Silver
We're excited to have a runner in a Grade 1. We're under no illusions about the task he faces off level weights. He's got to step up, but if he puts his best foot forward there is no reason why he can't finish in the frame.

Colin Tizzard, trainer of War Lord
He looked quite good up at Carlisle last time, where he just got to the front a bit quick. He's had a good prep and is a good prospect who could still be anything.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Il Ridoto
He won really well last weekend. It's always a bit of a punt running them so quickly, but he seems well. It's a really good, competitive race.

Racing Post exclusive offer. New customers can get £30 in free bets. First single & e/w bet only. Odds of 1/1 or greater. 6 x £5 bet token. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets redeemable on horseracing only. Free bets are non-withdrawable. No free bet expiry. Eligibility restrictions. Further T&Cs apply. 18+. begambleaware.org.