'He should be bang there' - which trainer fancies his chances in Fleur De Lys?

Sunday: 3.00 Lingfield
Fleur De Lys Chase | Class 2 | 2m6f 10y | 5yo+ | ITV4/SSR

Looking at the seven declarations, it seems we have an answer to the question of who would be attracted by a newly minted £150,000 chase over 2m6f in late January. Primarily, it is horses having a trial for the Ascot Chase.

Behind favourite and marquee attraction Bristol De Mai, there is last year's Ascot Chase winner Dashel Drasher, runner-up Master Tommytucker, former 1965 Chase second Itchy Feet and Fanion D'Estruval, who finished second in the bet365 chase at Ascot on Saturday.

These are not the sort of horses who would have turned up at Lingfield previously. In fact, none of them has run here before. It begs the question as to which might be best suited by the test Lingfield provides.

The main thing to note is that the ground here in winter is almost inevitably deep. Few tracks lose so many fixtures to waterlogging and even when they have raced, it is more than two years since the GoingStick reading here was lower than the 3.7 reported on Friday.

Deep ground is of course no sweat at all to Bristol De Mai. He holds the record for the biggest winning margin in a British Grade 1 and owes that to how he handled the worst Haydock could throw at him in the 2017 Betfair Chase.

This 2m6f distance is shorter than he is used to, although in his youth he also held the awkward position of being a noted mudlark who had less stamina than the dour Gold Cup types. He is therefore a better candidate than most to take this slight drop in trip, even at 11.

The other thing to note about Lingfield is the downhill run into the straight and three fairly quick fences in the closing stages – the third-last is 2½f out, almost exactly the same as at Kempton.

That suggests jumping could prove crucial, as, unlike at Kempton, runners rarely slip the field on the final bend. Jumping would not be a strong point for Itchy Feet, nor Fanion D'Estruval, and Master Tommytucker and Two For Gold both throw in the odd howler, too. It would be another positive for Bristol De Mai and Dashel Drasher.

Dashel Drasher: Grade 1 winner has won four of his last five startsCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

If those two are to dominate, the crucial element might be how responsibilities are shared on the front. Both are regular front-runners, although Master Tommytucker might be the likeliest leader in this field and Lieutenant Rocco and Two For Gold are never far away.

If all the usual pacesetters are ridden with dash, the main danger to Bristol De Mai could be his keeping up in the first half of the race.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Bristol De Mai could solve age-old conundrum

Which is more important, the trip or the ground? Bristol De Mai's performance today might hint at an answer to that age-old question.

He is seen as an out-and-out mudlark, renowned for ploughing through extremely heavy going to win two Betfair Chases at Haydock, not to mention a Finale Juvenile Hurdle in similar terrain at Chepstow.

Although he has also won a Betfair Chase on ground that was officially good, he was reckoned to find the surface at Haydock too quick for him on his fifth crack at the race last November.

He was pulled up and put by for this new contest, run at a time and place which should guarantee his getting the conditions he needs.

The weather has played ball for the four-time Grade 1 winner, yet this £150,000 event is run over just 2m6f. It is the shortest trip he has raced over since he was beaten at 2-5 by Seeyouatmidnight in a 2m4f match at Carlisle in 2016.

Will a chaser with the stamina to have finished third in the 3m2½f Cheltenham Gold Cup be able to cope?

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is confident and said: "I'm not really concerned about the distance, it will be a stiff trip round there in the ground.

"It was too quick for him at Haydock and it looks as though he'll get his ground. He's in very good shape and we're looking forward to it."

What they say

Jeremy Scott, trainer of Dashel Drasher
He's very well. We schooled him on Thursday morning, which all went very well. He should have as good a chance as anything in the race. The only worry would be the slightly longer trip on this ground, but he's coped with similar ground before.

Dashel Drasher: 'He should have as good a chance as anything in the race'Credit: Edward Whitaker

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Master Tommytucker
He's in good shape and we've aimed him at this race. We ran him quite quick at Huntingdon after his Ascot run. He has a leading chance on his Ascot run.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Itchy Feet
He's not done a lot wrong this season, with a very good run at Aintree and a good run behind Bravemansgame last time. If he reproduces either of those runs, he'll run very well. He's stepping up in trip and the slow ground at a big track is going to suit him. If he gets into a good rhythm, he should be bang there.

Kim Bailey, trainer of Two For Gold
He's in a good place and this has been his plan for some time. It's a really competitive race and if he was to finish in the first three I'd be delighted.
Reporting by David Carr

Sunday's race previews:

3.15 Thurles: 'We hope a clear round will be enough' - Willie Mullins looks for Allaho repeat

2.25 Lingfield: 'We've had this race in mind' - conditions to suit outsider of three Goshen

3.35 Lingfield: Look for heavy-ground specialists or 'swimmers' in Surrey National

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