'He couldn't be in a better place' - top trainers on their Greatwood chances

Sunday: 2.55 Cheltenham
Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle | 2m½f |4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Bookmakers seem to run for cover whenever Emmet Mullins and Paul Byrne combine for a top handicap in Britain and the layers are taking no chances with Thousand Tears in the Greatwood.

Byrne had a 35 per cent strike-rate over jumps in Britain in the last five seasons before the start of racing on Saturday and Thousand Tears shares a similar profile to the pair's 2020 Greatwood winner The Shunter, who looked completely exposed before joining Mullins.

He ran 18 times for former connections without winning and could hardly be described as well treated off a mark of 128 when pitching up at Cheltenham. However, The Shunter had loads in hand and eventually climbed to a peak rating of 148 over hurdles.

Thousand Tears ran 25 times for his previous trainer and landed two hurdle races off 107 and 109. On paper this seven-year-old has his work cut out off 129 (11lb higher than his Irish rating) on his second start for Mullins and is a poor favourite, but this team have been there and done it before.

Willie Mullins is responsible for second favourite Dads Lad and he also races from 11lb higher (128) than his Irish hurdles rating. In contrast to Thousand Tears, we know Dads Lad is well treated.

There are few doubts on the track as Dads Lad landed a decent handicap chase here off 135 in October and backing him probably makes more sense.

However, in big-field handicap hurdles the best-laid plans often go awry. An Irish gamble broke down in last season's running when 11-2 favourite Jesse Evans faded into ninth and there are two hurdlers worth considering at double-figure odds.

The first is the novice Gin Coco, who is blessed with a decent turn of foot. Harry Fry earmarked the Supreme Trial later on the card as Gin Coco's likelier target earlier in the week, but clearly the lure of this bigger pot proved irresistible.

Gin Coco is unexposed after four runs over hurdles and has never finished out of the first two, while the big-field experience he gained when second in a 25-runner Punchestown handicap is a plus.

Nina The Terrier, who, like Gin Coco, is rated 131, is the other of interest. She reopposes the well-fancied Sonigino off 14lb better terms for a two-and-three-quarter-length defeat at Chepstow two starts back, and might have picked up a decent mares' Listed race next time if she stayed on her feet rather than falling three out.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Thousand reasons for optimism

This is where Emmet Mullins made his name in Britain and market moves suggest he is out to mark the second anniversary by landing another touch.

Back in 2020 the County Carlow trainer really announced himself to punters on the other side of the Irish Sea when The Shunter was backed from 10-1 into 13-2 before comfortably landing this Greatwood Hurdle.

The Shunter (left) winning the 2020 Greatwood for Emmet Mullins and Paul ByrneCredit: Edward Whitaker

Follow-up victories in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso and the Plate here, scooping a £100,000 bonus, further illustrated that this was a man to take a seriously, a point underlined when he took the Grand National with Noble Yeats last spring.

So you cannot blame the bookmakers for taking no chances here with Thousand Tears, in the same blue colours of owner Paul Byrne, who was a 12-1 shot at the start of the week but has since been backed into a third of that price.

Clearly the seven-year-old is expected to improve on the form he showed in winning twice in 21 starts over hurdles for former trainer John Burke, on his first outing since finishing ninth in a Flat maiden at Galway in July on his debut for Mullins.

But the trainer said: "The horse is all good but I'm not sure where the support has come from. It's extraordinary stuff.

"If you look into his form deep enough there are bits and pieces but nothing to get too excited about. But we have to start somewhere and there's a nice bit of prize money on offer."

What they say

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of I Like To Move It
He ran very well in the Betfair Hurdle and he's won twice at the track, so hopefully he can run a good race.

Patrick Neville, trainer of N'golo
It's his first run since he won the Swinton but he's in good form and he's run well there before.

Alan King, trainer of Harbour Lake and Nina The Terrier
Harbour Lake won well at Market Rasen last month and although he's coming back in trip here, this is a much stiffer course. He's not a big, robust horse so we like to give him time between his races and he's in good form. He'll be 5lb higher in the handicap but he's progressing. Nina The Terrier was travelling very well when she fell in the two-mile mares' race at Wetherby on Charlie Hall day. She'll be suited by good ground and this stiff track.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Sonigino
He's in good form, though he could have done without a 10lb rise for his last win. He's an improving young horse who'll like the ground.

Harry Fry, trainer of Gin Coco
He gave us a nice headache over whether to run in the novice or in this race, but there's only one Greatwood and we decided to let him take his chance. He won nicely on his reappearance at Newton Abbot and he ran a nice race in a big-field handicap at the Punchestown festival last season, so I hope he can be competitive.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Severance
He couldn't be in a better place. The ground is fine and I think the track will suit. Two miles around Cheltenham where they go a good gallop will be right up his street. I'm quietly confident that he will run a big race. He has been dropped by the handicapper and he's in very good form. His work has never been brilliant but at the moment he has been very good.

Liam Cullinan, manager of Whitegrass Racing Syndicate, owners of Dads Lad
He likes decent ground so hopefully that should be in his favour. The handicapper has rated him 11lb higher over hurdles in Britain than Ireland and that won't make things any easier, but he's been in great form over the past few months.

John Quinn, trainer of First Impression
He's been running well on the Flat and has decent form over hurdles. The drying ground will help him and we're happy with him.
Reporting by David Carr

Sunday's previews:

1.45 Cheltenham: Nube Negra faces just two rivals in Shloer Chase repeat bid

1.55 Navan: Flooring Porter v Bob Olinger: analysis and insight for a huge Lismullen clash

2.20 Cheltenham: 'We think he's in great shape' - which chaser has his trainer purring?

2.30 Navan: Townend 'worried' by Ferny Hollow's lack of chasing experience on Fortria return

3.30 Cheltenham: Nicky Henderson newcomer bids to emulate Altior in Supreme Trial

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