Graeme Rodway: why proven chase form could be the answer to a classic conundrum

2.40 Cheltenham
Best Odds At Matchbook Novices' Chase | 2m4f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

This is a classic conundrum for a novice chase. Should you look for proven form over fences or take a punt on the smart hurdler turned chasing newcomer to put in a good round first up?

Southfield Stone has the best chase form. He won only once in his novice campaign last season and that was in a three-runner event at Musselburgh, but his form was progressive and he improved on that when second in the Pendil Novices’ Chase at Kempton in February.

He was awarded a Racing Post Rating of 152, which is 10lb higher than the figure Not That Fuisse recorded when winning at Perth last month, but figures aren’t everything and that’s especially true when dealing with lightly raced novice chasers who are still far from exposed.

Not That Fuisse might have a best RPR of just 142, but he has done most of his racing in chases over trips short of his optimum two-and-a-half miles and he relished the return to this distance when scoring by easier than the length-and-a-half margin implied at Perth last time.

He is a strong traveller who looks likely to be even better when faced with quality opposition and this contest might just bring out the best in him. I’m expecting improvement.

With a BHA rating of 143, Pileon was the best of these over hurdles and the former Irish pointer has the potential to be even better over fences. However, Philip Hobbs-trained chasers usually improve with experience and the yard is only 12 per cent with chasing debutants in novice events since the start of 2016. A £1 bet on those would have yielded a loss of £24.62.

Those figures suggest it might be worth swerving this smart hurdler turned chasing newcomer and sticking with the proven chase form of the other three in a line-up which is completed by Coole Cody, who drops in trip after a good second at Newton Abbot last time.
Graeme Rodway, tipster

What they say

Evan Williams, trainer of Coole Cody
At the weights it's going to be tough as they're a lovely bunch of novices, but I've got a notion he could run a good race in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. I could go for easier options, but that won't tell us anything, so I want to come here and see how he handles the fences and go from there. He's won at Cheltenham over hurdles. We can go into calmer waters if it doesn't work, but if he shows an aptitude for the fences we can roll the dice in the Paddy Power.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Not That Fuisse
He was really good at Perth and is a massively improved horse this year. I don't want any rain for him. Two and a half miles is his trip, and this will give us an idea of where to go with him next.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Southfield Stone
He had his palate recauterised in the summer and ran some good races last season. He's got a good chance.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Pileon
He was unlucky at the Cheltenham Festival to be beaten in a photo-finish. He has schooled very well over fences and I hope he runs well.
Reporting by James Burn

More Cheltenham Saturday previews:

'He'll take a good deal of beating' – Skelton confident as Allmankind returns

Course specialist Tobefair isn't overburdened as he bids for repeat victory

Will an enormous BHA handicap mark of 164 anchor Frodon and Bryony Frost?

Members can click here to download the digital newspaper every evening from 9pm. Not a member? Click here to sign up and enjoy the digital newspaper every day.