Graeme Rodway thinks a quick turnaround is a significant pointer at Bath

4.35 Bath
Signs Express Handicap | 5f | 3yo+ 0-85 | Sky

The markets are so strong nowadays that it’s rare to see the betting too far wrong, but Thegreatestshowman was well beaten when sent off a heavily backed 9-4 favourite at Chelmsford on Thursday night and it looks significant he is turned out quickly here.

The Amy Murphy-trained gelding had excuses. He was bumped and carried right at the start in a rough race where he baulked another rival four furlongs out and ended up forced wide. That’s not the place to be at Chelmsford and rider Hollie Doyle was quick to report to stewards after the race that Thegreatestshowman had raced too free and hung right-handed.

If you had backed every horse that was sent off outright favourite on their previous start who were turned out quickly within five days of that outing in sprint races over 5f-6f since the start of 2016, you would have returned a tidy 64 winners from 233 runners. That’s a healthy 27 per cent strike-rate and, while that yielded a loss of £21.65 to £1 level stakes at starting price, you wouldn’t have been far off winning had you secured the best morning prices.

Two of the last three trainers to have won this race saddle runners again. Michael Attwater won it three years ago with Delagate This Lord and runs his half-sister Diligent Lady, while Coronation Cottage represents Malcolm Saunders, who had success last year with Secretfact.

Attwater is operating at a 22 per cent strike-rate at this course in the last five years and Saunders isn’t far off that at 19 per cent. Backing every runner from both yards here in that time would have yielded a combined profit of £10.74, so they may provide the dangers.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

James Tate, trainer of So Sharp
I didn’t think she liked the ground and six furlongs on her first run for me at Haydock, and I think this new trip will suit her a lot better. Off her home work I do think she’ll be competitive off 83 but on her comeback run she’s going to have to improve quite a lot, though there are reasons to think she will.

Amy Murphy, trainer of Thegreatestshowman
He’s in good form. He’s been running fine in these Class 4 handicaps and hopefully he can go and run well this time. We’ve tried different types of headgear and he’s been placing but hasn’t really fired so I’ve taken it off.

Michael Attwater, trainer of Diligent Lady
We had high hopes for her after she won very well at Windsor and then she didn’t run as well as we’d hoped at Bath and then at Ascot. She was running a bit free so we gave her a bit of time, and she had a couple of teeth giving her trouble so we got those sorted out. We went back to Windsor last time and she just struggled to go through the ground early on but stayed on really strongly at the end. We’re quite hopeful that back on quicker ground and a stiffer five she travels that bit easier. I think she’s back where she should be now and I’ll be disappointed if she didn’t put up a really big performance.

Ron Harris, trainer of Union Rose
He seems fine and has eaten up well since winning at Sandown on Friday. The ground is drying out and it’ll be a bit quicker than what Sandown was but I don’t think that will be too much of an issue. The draw isn’t the best as he’s a better horse when he's out in daylight and going round horses.

Nigel Tinkler, trainer of Star Prize
She's a course-and-distance winner so we know she gets the track. It’s a little bit of a warmer race than that July win but she’ll like the quick ground.
Reporting by Andrew Wilsher

Place a bet of £1 or more on any UK or Irish race on racingpost.com to watch it live. Click the 'Watch Live' icon at the top of the racecard when it's due to start to watch the full race