Graeme Rodway is steering clear of an overbet course trend in Queensferry Stakes
6.30 Chester
#chestertogether Queensferry Stakes (Listed Race) | 6f | 3yo+ | Sky
It’s generally accepted that stalls one and two are the best draws in sprints at Chester and horses from those inside gates have won at a healthy 19 per cent strike-rate in races over 5f to 6f at the Cheshire track since the start of 2016.
However, it’s such a well-known fact that the market has adapted and backing all those runners blind to £1 level-stakes would have yielded a loss of £9.62 at starting price.
You might have been able to turn a profit at the best morning prices, but it wouldn’t have been a huge one and the value appears to be gone from that angle.
That’s not to say Dark Pursuit (stall one) and Judicial (two) can’t win because both have strong claims.
Dark Pursuit comes here searching for a hat-trick on his debut for Marco Botti after two wins at Doha in February, and a Racing Post Rating of 106 for his latest success puts him right up there with the best of these, if he can reproduce that level of form in Britain.
Judicial has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his Group 3 win at Newcastle in June but would still have a big chance if he can run to that form. He was well held at Newbury last time, though.
If the low-drawn runners are being overbet, it stands to reason that the higher draws might be underbet and if you’re a value punter, as we all should be, that might be the place to look.
Front-runners generally perform well over 6f at Chester and Major Jumbo (six) made all when landing this race last year by a wide margin from Rock On Baileys, who is in the field again here and will be coming from stall eight.
Banking on a similar outcome could be the value play in the race.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway
What they say
Steve Brown, husband and assistant to Julie Camacho, trainer of Judicial
He travelled best in the race at Newbury last time and then was a little disappointing in the last 150 yards, and I couldn't tell you why. He needs to bounce back but has a good record at Chester [211] and is well drawn.
Tom Dascombe, trainer of Angel Alexander
He ran away in visors last time so we've taken them off and put cheekpieces on. Hopefully they do the trick as he's won twice at the course in the past.
Marco Botti, trainer of Dark Pursuit
He's a nice horse who did well in Qatar and has come to us for the summer to run in the nicer races over six or seven furlongs. I think his mark of 108 is a bit high though, and he'll need to transfer his form to England. He's used to running on a sharp track, he has a good draw [one] and we'll find out more about him.
Marwan Koukash, owner of Gabrial The Wire and Growl
Gabrial The Wire might want further than this trip at a sharp track as I see him as a miler. Growl has run well round Chester and the trip is ideal for him, but it's a tough race for his first start of the season.
John Quinn, trainer of Keep Busy
She's in great form and the conditions of the race suit her. She has a good low draw [three] and hopefully the forecast rain will come. She goes on any ground but is better with a bit of ease.
Reporting by Andrew Dietz
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Published on 9 August 2020inPreviews
Last updated 15:08, 9 August 2020
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