Graeme Rodway assesses a fascinating nursery from a handicapping perspective

3.45 Goodwood
Gusbourne Nursery Handicap | Class 2 | 7f, 2yo | ITV/RTV

Nurseries at this time of year are tough to solve normally but there is even less form to go on this season due to temporary amendments made to qualifying rules as a result of Covid-19.

In normal times a juvenile is eligible for a handicap rating to run in a nursery if they have run in three or more Flat races or if they have run in two Flat races, having won their first race and been placed in the first four in their second. But now, under the amended rules, horses can also compete if they have run in two Flat races and either finished in the first six on both starts or won their first race.

There are even more unknown quantities than normal in this line up as a result.

Mark Johnston has won this race three times in the last six years and both his runners wouldn’t normally have been eligible. Codebook and Monza City have beaten only four horses home in four starts between them, so they are difficult horses for the handicapper to weigh up. With less evidence available, there is a chance they might have sneaked in lightly.

Mark Johnston: saddles two in this 7f nursery handicapCredit: Edward Whitaker

Running Back, Calcutta Cup and Quarantini are the other three who get in under the new criteria in a race that will be fascinating from a handicapping perspective.

The final note comes on the draw. Low is a huge advantage over 7f at Goodwood and stalls one and two, in particular, are favoured.

William Bligh is a confirmed front-runner and will surely attempt to make all from two. He could soon be trading at short prices in running as his likely early competitors, Monza City (stall eight), Codebook (11) and Miss Diamond (12) are drawn wide.

Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

James Ramsden, managing director of Chelsea Thoroughbreds, owners of William Bligh
We started him off in the first two-year-old race of the year as Ralph [Beckett] always liked him and there was a tiny chance if he'd ran slightly better there, we'd have gone to the Chesham at Royal Ascot. It was great to see him battle against Master Of The Seas next time and he then did everything that was asked of him when winning at Haydock. We're not entirely convinced he's dependent on soft ground, but we'll find out. It's up to him to prove himself, and his pedigree suggests he'll want a bit further in time, but this is a logical next step.

Jack Channon, assistant to Mick Channon, trainer of Rommel
Everyone is still getting a handle on the handicap marks for two-year-olds, but he's come out of Ascot very well and it looked a hot race that day – carrying a penalty was probably quite a tough task. We're hoping off his mark he can be competitive and he seems in great form. The ground should be perfect and he's got a good draw in stall one so there are a few factors in his favour.

Jamie Osborne, trainer of Balavad
I feel we haven't quite seen the best of him yet. If we have and I'm wrong, he might struggle, but I'm still hopeful he can find some improvement over and above his mark. I don't think he's out of it. We could have found an easier opportunity for him, but I can always go back to an easier opportunity so let's have a go at this.

Sylvester Kirk, trainer of Study The Stars
He's got a nice low weight, so we're taking our chance off that. He's been running well and I think the step back up to seven furlongs will suit. Hopefully he can run well.

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