Expert analysis on a possible pace scenario in a competitive handicap chase

1.50 Cheltenham
Paddy Power 45 Sleeps To Cheltenham Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3) | 2m4½f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

Tipster analysis

There is a folklore attached to the Cheltenham hill that would make you think it was the north face of the Eiger. That fearsome reputation occasionally manifests itself in how jockeys approach a race like this one.

In theory, it should be a burn-up. Of the declared runners, five of them (Cepage, Lalor, Highway One O One, Warthog and Cool Mix) all have offered recent evidence of front-running or at least pressing the leaders, some of them over this course and distance.

Sometimes it materialises, as in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, sometimes it doesn't as on New Year's Day.

That guessing game, which may be settled in the weighing room, could prove pivotal in this race. It is suggested that most of the likeliest scenarios involve Jamie Moore pressing on with Highway One O One, given how aggressively he rode the same horse at Kempton over three miles on Desert Orchid day.

Chris Gordon: saddles a big player in Highway One O One

Forceful tactics are often rewarded at Kempton and it tends to be the same story here. The suspicion is that Highway One O One is ready for three miles now, so Moore can go out knowing he has a little bit of stamina in reserve.

If a strong pace ensues, it brings in more patiently ridden horses that would otherwise be hard to justify in races like this. Garde La Victoire shaped on his belated return as though some spark still remains, while in front of him in the same race was My Way.

He finished second to Espoir De Guye, who was miles the best, but he can be considered to have got off lightly to be running off just 2lb higher now having emerged as the clear second best in such a warm handicap. My Way is worth having onside, assuming the ground is soft enough.

A similar sort of argument applies to Spiritofthegames, who ought to have won the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. He is just 3lb higher now and would also benefit from a similarly strong pace to the one that played out that day.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

What the stats say

Kayley Woollacott will be hoping to end a 372-day spell without a winner, in which she has saddled 51 runners, with stable star Lalor.

Cheltenham Festival prices

Lalor Plate 20-1 general, Ryanair Chase 40-1 William Hill

Highway One O One Ultima 25-1 Sky Bet, Plate 33-1 general

Count Meribel Plate 25-1 general, Ryanair Chase 100-1 William Hill

Spiritofthegames Plate 33-1 general

Cepage Plate 33-1 general

Although just two of the last ten runnings have gone the way of the favourite, the market has proved a reasonable guide with just one double-figure priced winner in the last decade.

What connections say

Venetia Williams, trainer of Cepage
He's in good order and it looks a really competitive race. He should enjoy the conditions.

Tom Messenger, assistant to Dan Skelton, trainer of Spiritofthegames
He ran a fantastic race in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup last time and hopefully he can build on it. He deserves to win a race of this nature after finishing second in the Lanzarote, third in the Betfair Hurdle, third in the Plate and second last time.

Chris Gordon, trainer of Highway One O One
The ground will help as it will be a little better than he's been running on lately and goes there in good order. He ran well last time on his first try at three miles, when he was a little free, so the drop back to this trip should suit.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Count Meribel
I'm very hopeful. He's not over-exposed so I would hope for a very good run.

David Pipe, trainer of Warthog
He put up a career-best effort to win the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup over course and distance last time and it was good to see him put two good runs together. He's in good form, but I fear Lalor, who looked back to his best last time.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of My Way
He has a nice light weight and the extra couple of furlongs should suit. He ran well at Ascot last time behind a good rival and he's got a good each-way chance.
Reporting by Jack Haynes

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