Easyview: in-depth rankings for each Betfred Derby runner plus Keith Melrose's verdicts

Racing Post Easyview is a 21st-century approach form study. It takes all the factors that a skilled judge would account for in a race and uses machine learning to condense them into six main attributes.

These attributes are each scored out of 100, and they contribute at various strengths to the overall score shown beside each horse. The Derby is a tough race for any punter.

Easyview is trained on years of results and data, so even when it comes to the sport's most historic and unique races it is well prepared for the challenge. Use the Easyview attributes to help you find your idea of the Derby winner.

Home in on the angles that matter most to you, look at the overall scores or take an approach that mixes the two. Easyview is not explicitly a tipping service. This is a means to help punters of all levels of experience make intuitive, informed betting decisions.

We'd love to know what you think of Easyview so we can make it even better. Just click on this link to share your feedback.

The Easyview racecard

1.30 Epsom, Saturday: Betfred Derby racecard and betting

Artistic Star
Jockey rating: 91

In the Oaks, Rob Hornby was one of the lowest-scoring jockeys. For the Derby he is nearly ten points higher and much further up the order. He has not improved overnight. Rather the difference in scores reflects who he is riding for. Hornby has an overall strike-rate in recent years of ten per cent. For Ralph Beckett, trainer of his Derby mount Artistic Star, Hornby has a 16 per cent strike-rate from more than 600 rides.

The model picks up not only the winning rate, but also factors in the large sample size. As a result, it views Beckett and Hornby as a potent team. They showed that yesterday at Epsom, when last year's Derby third Westover finished second in the Group 1 Coronation Cup.

Artistic Star13:30 Epsom

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Jky: Rob Hornby Tnr: Ralph Beckett

Auguste Rodin
Distance rating: 79

Only four of the 14 runners have run over today's mile-and-a-half trip. So the Easyview engine has to join some dots on the distance attribute. It does so by scanning a horse's pedigree and in-running notes, to look for clues that they will be suited by the new trip. So why is Auguste Rodin the lowest distance scorer in the field? His dam Rhododendron finished second in the Oaks over the Derby's course and distance. The answer is that the engine works mostly on performances, and Rhododendron's two best runs came over a mile. He has yet to run beyond a mile.

The model has picked up on a point that has been made by some astute human judges. To fixate on Auguste Rodin's poor run in the 2,000 Guineas is to ignore that he is not a guaranteed stayer in the Derby.

Auguste Rodin13:30 Epsom

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Jky: Ryan Moore Tnr: A P O'Brien

Military Order
Course rating: 74

Epsom is a unique course. The sea of yellow among this field's course scores reflects as much. From crunching many years' worth of data, the engine knows that you cannot really tell if a horse handles Epsom until they try it. Military Order has his nose in front on this category. The reason for that is twofold. First of all, he has won at Lingfield. That course has some broad similarities with Epsom, more so than Newmarket or Leopardstown or York.

The second is related to pedigree. He is a brother to Adayar, who won the Derby two years ago. These factors do not add up to a huge amount, but they suggest Military Order has a bit less to prove than most tackling Epsom for the first time.

Military Order13:30 Epsom

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Jky: William Buick Tnr: Charlie Appleby

Sprewell
Trainer rating: 95

Normally a convincing winner of Leopardstown's Derby Trial would be prominent in the Derby betting. The reason Sprewell, who won that race by three lengths, is not is most likely because of his trainer. Jessica Harrington does not have the same worldwide renown as Aidan O'Brien, or Godolphin, or Sir Michael Stoute. Dedicated followers of racing know this is an unfair assessment. Harrington has been a leading trainer in Ireland for many years. She has won two Irish Classics and a dozen Group 1s.

In short, her only crime is in not being called Aidan O'Brien. Punters will inevitably be drawn to multiple Derby-winning trainers like O'Brien, Stoute or John Gosden. But the machine knows that Jessica Harrington belongs in their club.

Sprewell13:30 Epsom

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Jky: Shane Foley Tnr: Mrs John Harrington

Easyview 1-2-3 verdict

1 Military Order
2 Auguste Rodin
3 Arrest

The Easyview score takes all six attributes and calculates a weighted average, which varies by race type. Therefore it is a little more sophisticated than identifying which horse ticks all the boxes. According to the engine, the Derby is an exceptionally open race. Just a fraction of a point separates our top three. By scoring higher on distance than Auguste Rodin, and higher than Arrest on course, Military Order gets the verdict for the 2023 Betfred Derby.

Military Order13:30 Epsom

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Jky: William Buick Tnr: Charlie Appleby

Read these next:

2023 Betfred Derby at Epsom: the runners, the odds, the verdict 

Derby tips 2023: Racing Post experts predict the first three home in the big race at Epsom 

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