D-day for star hurdler Paisley Park with switch to fences under consideration

Saturday: 2.30 Wetherby
bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) | 3m | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Paisley Park has become one of the most popular hurdlers in Britain after a string of good efforts in staying races over the last few years and it's great to see him back on track.

Now nine years of age and soon to be turning ten, Paisley Park is past his peak but he hasn't lost any of the steely resolution that has made him such a favourite with jumps fans.

Paisley Park showed that in spades when snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in one of last season's most thrilling finishes for Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle, and the warrior was carried out on his shield when a never-nearer third behind Flooring Porter at Cheltenham in March.

Last season Paisley Park recorded RPRs of 164 (twice) and 163 on the three occasions he completed and the one time he didn't there was a plausible excuse. He was pulled up in the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree, but that was less than a month after his heroic Stayers' third.

Only Kilcooley (167 in 2015) has bettered an RPR of 160 in this race in the last ten years and the median winner's rating for the event in that time is just 154. If Paisley Park could repeat last season's best figures he would be a certainty in any normal year, even when taking into account his 6lb penalty, but there is no such thing as a certainty and this isn't a normal year.

A quick look at Paisley Park's opposition confirms that. Thomas Darby recorded an RPR of 157 when third in a Grade 1 at Aintree in April and that figure would have won Thomas Darby eight of the last ten runnings, and we haven't even mentioned Master Tommytucker.

The talented but often haphazard chaser recorded an RPR of 165 on three separate occasions over fences last season and is unbeaten in two runs over hurdles. He might even be capable of bettering his chase figures if he jumps hurdles better than fences. That is an exciting prospect.

Most people like to consider themselves logical in life and, as such, find it easy to warm to horses like Paisley Park. He is the ideal type for those who prefer the logical approach to the pin-sticker's one. His form makes sense; he is consistent and can be relied on to run to form.

However, horseracing is a sport that will often throw up illogical results and, as punters, we can come a cropper when trying to apply strict logic to it, not least because the market does too.

Paisley Park will likely head the betting, but my illogical side tells me he might just be beaten.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Decision day for Paisley Park

After years of being a leading player in the staying hurdle division, for Paisley Park Saturday's race could mark an important chapter in the career of Emma Lavelle's stable star.

Starting last season as runner-up to Thyme Hill in the Long Distance Hurdle, Paisley Park went on to overturn that result a month later to land his third Grade 1 in the mud at Ascot.

A similar start to the season will send the nine-year-old back on the familiar path to Cheltenham, but a future over fences is in the back of trainer's mind.

Emma Lavelle: 'I couldn't be happier with him'Credit: Edward Whitaker

"I couldn't be happier with him," Lavelle said. "We started a little earlier and depending on what happens, we'll decide which route we go, whether to stay over hurdles or have a look at fences.

"He schools well over fences, but if he brings what he's been showing at home to the track I imagine we'll be staying over hurdles.

"He's in great order and the rain is arriving at Wetherby, which is good news for us."

What they say

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Ask Dillon
He had a bad fall last season and we sent him to Chepstow last time and he didn't jump well there at all. We agreed with the owners that we'd go back over hurdles, whether he's as good as these, we don't know, but he's better over hurdles and there are plenty of races for him.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Master Tommytucker
I'm really looking forward to running him. The more rain that comes will suit him and he's in good shape, fit and well. He'll go back chasing after this, but you've got to start him somewhere and for a 160-rated chaser with no penalty he's in with a chance.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Proschema
I've been looking forward to running him at three miles. He's won at the track before but has a bit to find on ratings. He wouldn't want the ground to go completely soft.

Charles Byrnes, trainer of Run For Oscar
Run For Oscar has gone up considerably in the handicap at home and we thought this would be a good opportunity to dip our toe into Graded company. I think as long as the ground stays on the better side, three miles should be about right for him. I am not saying he will be good enough to win but I think he could run a big race.
Reporting by Catherine Macrae

Saturday previews and analysis:

2.10 Ascot: 'He's very unexposed' – find out who's flying under the radar in handicaps

2.45 Ascot: Editeur may just have the edge in round three between two progressive chasers

2.50 Down Royal: Elliott, Nicholls and De Bromhead on the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase

3.05 Wetherby: The Cyrname conundrum: do you play or lay the Charlie Hall favourite?

3.20 Ascot: can classy Vinndication confirm himself a Graded performer in a handicap?

3.25 Down Royal: 'He's taking on the best horse ever to look through a bridle' – Envoi rivals

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