Could Sandown's Classic Trial prove the key to cracking the Cocked Hat?
3.25 Goodwood
British Stallion Studs EBF Cocked Hat Stakes (Listed) | 1m3f | 3yo | RTV
This contest could turn into a fascinating rematch between Yibir and Lone Eagle, who went into the Classic Trial at Sandown in April as the two favourites but couldn't get the job done.
Yibir proved an easy-to-back morning favourite for that Sandown race and went off 4-1 second best behind 7-2 market leader Lone Eagle. However, it was Yibir who got the better of the battle, finishing three and three-quarter lengths ahead of Lone Eagle off level weights.
The Classic Trial is a Group 3 but this is only a Listed race and as a result, Lone Eagle now has to carry a 5lb penalty for his Group 3 Zetland Stakes win at Newmarket last year. He appears to have a tough task to reverse the Sandown places with Yibir, who will now get 5lb.
However, Yibir has since put in a disappointing display at Chester, when he was a well-held favourite in the Dee Stakes, and, from six who tried, only one horse has come on to land this Derby trial after being beaten at Chester since 2011. That was Storm The Stars in 2015, who had finished second in the Chester Vase and that is traditionally a stronger race than the Dee.
Horses who came straight from Sandown have a better record. Two of the six who waited for this race after contesting the Sandown Classic Trial on their previous outing were successful – Masked Marvel (2011) and Algometer (2016) – so maybe Lone Eagle has had the better prep.
Four of the last ten winners of this race were more unexposed, having had only one or two runs, and a £1 bet on all 16 runners who competed here after having less than three outings would have yielded a profit, albeit a mere £2.17.
Stay Well and Man Of Riddles fit into that category and the David Simcock-trained Man Of Riddles looks the more interesting, having won his only start at Wolverhampton in March.
Simcock has run some of his better horses here in recent years. He won it with Algometer in 2016 and 2017 runner-up Fierce Impact has since won three Group 1s in Australia. Simcock also saddled Spanish Mission to finish second in 2019, and he is now a dual Group 2 winner.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway
What they say
Martyn Meade, trainer of Lone Eagle
His run last time at Sandown wasn't a bad effort, but it lacked any sparkle for some reason. Whether it was a true reflection of him, I don't know. He's a difficult horse to assess because he doesn't do a lot at home and it was probably a bit disappointing at Sandown as I don't think he was unfit. Maybe it was a mental thing and he was a bit ring-rusty, just taking time to come to hand. I'm hoping we see a different horse in this.
Richard Frisby, racing manager to Kirsten Rausing, owner-breeder of Aleas
The ground and trip should suit him. Ralph [Beckett, trainer] feels confident the horse will stay a mile and three furlongs and there's some stamina in the family, which would lead you to believe that would be the case. This is probably the fifth generation of the family Miss Rausing has had, so it's about nurturing the family and some black type is more valuable than going for another handicap.
Hughie Morrison, trainer of Stay Well
We could have gone for a novice race, but this is a logical step, although I don't really know how he'll handle the easier ground because our old turf gallops at home aren't like racecourse soft ground – they get soft but ride good. I think he has to show how good he is and we haven't over-trained him for this, but he's a nice horse, although he might be a handicapper for all we know. You'd be a bit upset if he didn't get a mile and a half so the trip should be in his compass. Being by Iffraaj does raise a bit of a question mark, but there's plenty of stamina on the dam's side so hopefully she's the dominant force. We're realistic but hopeful and it's nice to have people involved with aspirations to win our greatest race.
Reporting by James Burn
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