Could David Probert be the key to unlocking a sprint puzzle at Windsor?

3.40 Windsor
Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 535 Handicap | 6f | 4yo+ | Sky

This might seem an obvious statement but the quickest from the blocks usually win sprint races and that is particularly true at Windsor, where front-runners dominate over six furlongs.

Since the start of 2016, there have been 186 races over six furlongs at Windsor and 41 of the winners made all the running. That’s a healthy 22 per cent strike-rate and the figures suggest it makes little sense to overcomplicate it tactically, yet so many of these runners often do.

Only Beyond Equal, Heer We Go Again and Company Minx have been given the in-running comments of “led” or “disputed lead” in their last three outings and the words “held up in rear” are a far more common occurrence. That’s surprising in a 12-strong field of sprinters.

So will any of the connections, or riders, take it upon themselves to change tack in a bid to take advantage of the easy lead that could be on offer at a track which favours such tactics?

Maybe David Probert will be the man to exploit this angle on Bimble. It could be coincidence because it's a small sample, but Probert has made the running in more six-furlong races at Windsor than any other jockey since the start of 2016 and he is pretty good at it as well.

Probert has three wins from those 14 rides (21 per cent) and included among them was a 33-1 scorer. Four of the others finished second and a further three third, so he judges pace well.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Mick Appleby, trainer of Edraak
Hopefully the quicker ground will suit him and he's still unexposed, especially on turf. The ground has been on the easier side when we've run him on it and he's straight enough fitness-wise.

Tom Ward: trainer saddles Capote's DreamCredit: Edward Whitaker

Tom Ward, trainer of Capote's Dream
The whole sprinting thing is quite new to him so I still think he's quite unfurnished as a sprinting prospect and I also think he'll be better on turf, despite winning his last two at Kempton. He gets caught a little flat-footed at Kempton and stays on to the line, so a genuine gallop on a straight six furlongs should suit nicely.

Mark Loughnane, trainer of Triggered
We decided not to run him on the all-weather over the winter and hopefully he can hit the ground running. He's a horse to look forward to this year and is working well at home. He'll probably come on for the run but it wouldn't surprise me if he went in.

Tony Carroll, trainer of Last Page and Second Collection
Second Collection has some good form at Windsor and this is competitive, but she's off a nice weight and is fit from the all-weather. She's got a good draw in 12 and everything looks good for her. I just need to keep an eye on the ground for Last Page as it might be too quick. Our horses are fit and well and we're enjoying a good time, which we'd expect to continue on the turf now.

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