Champion juvenile Little Big Bear returns to sprinting - can the Sandy Lane be a stepping stone to the Commonwealth Cup?

It is always nice when history retroactively backs you up. The last winner of the Sandy Lane before the Commonwealth Cup was introduced was Aeolus. He was a sprinter, in later life he won the Chipchase and finished second in the Stewards' Cup. But with no six-furlong Group race for three-year-olds at Royal Ascot available to him in 2014, he ran in the Jersey Stakes. He finished last.

Since then the Sandy Lane has become sprinting's Craven or Dante. In every year after Aeolus, a runner from the Sandy Lane has made the first three in the Commonwealth Cup (form figures 2122322). You will not find a Classic trial with such a consistent recent record.

The likelihood is that the trend will continue in 2023. The arithmetic suggests so. Dutching all the Sandy Lane runners in the Commonwealth Cup ante-post market would put you on an effective 11-8 shot. Four of the top eight in the betting would be running for you.

This year we have the Sandy Lane as Group 1 rematch as well as Group 1 informer. In last year's Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, Coventry winner Bradsell went off favourite ahead of Little Big Bear. Bradsell trailed in fourth, while Little Big Bear's seven-length win earned him champion juvenile honours.

Neither horse ran again in 2022. Their respective reappearances in 2023 struck a pretty sharp contrast. Bradsell ran in the Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot. There he achieved the rare feat of trading at in running win odds of 1.03 only to be run out of the first two.

Three days later, Little Big Bear ran in the 2,000 Guineas. He pulled too hard, apparently confirming fears over the winter that he would be a lifelong sprinter. He is still favourite for the rematch with Bradsell and rightly so. His Phoenix win is 10lb superior to anything Bradsell can offer. And if the Guineas serves as nothing other than proof of his best trip, then it should not have much effect on his price for this six-furlong Group 2.

Bradsell might not even be the main threat. Cold Case beat him at Ascot and, even allowing for fitness that day, you would not think there is much between the pair. Al Dasim's form in Meydan entitles him to be second-favourite. The market is often biased against Dubai form translating back to Britain. That approach is still a pretty good heuristic, for all Mawj broke the taboo in this year's 1,000 Guineas.

Looking for dangers is all punters ought to be doing. Little Big Bear's Curragh form is 7lb higher than the average required in the Sandy Lane going back to 2015. In fact, it is equal to any performance yet seen in the Commonwealth Cup. His is the profile of a 5-4 shot and he should be treated as such.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'He's stepped up the ladder pretty fast' - rapid improver Al Dasim destined for big targets

Al Dasim has been a rapid improver since joining George Boughey and the trainer is hoping to use this Group 2 contest as a stepping stone for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.

Having completed a five-timer with a hat-trick in Dubai, the latest a comfortable Group 3 victory, Al Dasim took his first step into top-level company, finishing a respectable three-length seventh in the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan.

Al Dasim: completed a five-timer before a respectable effort in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint

Al Dasim has shot up 19lb in the ratings in seven starts for Boughey, but the trainer is confident this run will lead to better things. He said: "It's his first start since returning from Dubai. He had a nice little break afterwards and this is a prep run for the Commonwealth Cup.

"He's in great shape and we're very happy with him, but he'll improve for the run. He wouldn't want the ground to be too overwatered as he thrived on quick going in Dubai. He's stepped up the ladder pretty fast and was a touch unlucky in the Al Quoz – he could have finished a bit closer.

"He's got to step up again, but this is the perfect race for him and we'll see where we are – we know there's more improvement to come."

What they say

Karl Burke, trainer of Cold Case
He's in great form and the watered ground will help him. I’d have preferred a bit more juice, but it is what it is and I think he’ll run a big race. He’s definitely stepped forward for Ascot – he’d have needed that run.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Little Big Bear
We're going from a mile on soft ground to six [furlongs] on quicker ground, so it'll be a big change for him. We've been very happy with everything he's done at home since Newmarket.

Jane Chapple-Hyam, trainer of Mill Stream
He won't be as fit as his rivals, but this is a stepping stone to the Commonwealth Cup. He showed nice form last year and everything has been positive over the winter. He's a big unit now and will need the run, but I've got to start him somewhere as I can't just throw him straight in at Ascot.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Shouldvebeenaring
He was very good in a Listed race at Newmarket last time and you could set your watch by him because he’s so consistent. This is another step up, but he’s in good form, will like the ground and deserves to take his chance. He won’t mind the drop back in trip.
Reporting by Harry Wilson

Read these next:

'She has loads of talent' - analysis and trainer quotes for a wide-open Temple Stakes  

'The draw is fortunate and the ground shouldn't be a problem' - Is Covey the one in hot handicap for Gosden and Dettori?  

Why laying the favourite could be the best route to profit in this York Group 3  

Do you want £200+ of free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.